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MBSForex Daily Analysis

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    EUR/USD 11/5/2016

    MAY 11, 2016

    The EUR/USD pair traded uneventfully for a second consecutive day, ending the day pretty much flat around the 1.1380 region, although it fell intraday down to 1.1358, a fresh weekly low. With no major macroeconomic data having been released ever since the week started, speculative interest struggles to find a new direction for the pair, after it topped at 1.1615, a fresh yearly high, and completed a 50% downward correction.

    Germany released disappointing Industrial Production data for Match, up year-on-year by 0.3%, against expectation of a 1.0% advance, while monthly basis it declined by 1.3%. The country’s trade balance for the same month, however, posted a larger than expected surplus of €23.6B. In the US, more good news kept coming from the labor sector, as the JOLTS job opening report showed that the number of job openings increased to 5.757 million in March from a revised 5.608 million in February. Also, wholesale inventories in the US held at 0.1% in March, whilst sales rose 0.7%, the biggest monthly increase since April 2015.

    From a technical point of view, the pair is on a brink of a downward breakout, barely holding around the 61.8% retracement of its latest daily bullish run at 1.1370. In the 4 hours chart early attempts of advancing were contained by a bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators head modestly lower below their mid-lines, lacking momentum amid the intraday restricted range. Nevertheless and as long as the price remains unable to recover above 1.1420, the risk is towards the downside, with scope to test the 1.1280/1.1300 price zone.

    Support levels: 1.1335 1.1290 1.1250

    Resistance levels: 1.1420 1.1460 1.1500

    Source: www.fxonlinews.com
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    AUD/USD 11/5/2016
    MAY 11, 2016

    The AUD/USD pair bounced modestly from a fresh 2-month low of 0.7299 achieved during the Asian session, with the Aussie paring losses after reaching the 50% retracement of this year’s rally. Stabilizing Chinese inflation and an intraday recovery in commodities, helped the pair to recover some ground, albeit the shallow advance is not enough to suggest the downward potential is over. Still Aussie weakness seems overextended ever since the RBA announced a surprise rate cut last week, and a sharp drop here is unlikely, before some consolidation/short term upward correction. From a technical point of view, the pair presents a very limited bullish tone as in the 1 hour chart, the price is above a bullish 20 SMA, but the technical indicators remain flat, right above their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, however, the risk remains towards the downside, as the price remains capped by a strongly bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have stalled their advances around their mid-lines, with the RSI indicator already heading south around 39.

    Support levels: 0.7290 0.7240 0.7200
    Resistance levels: 0.7370 0.7410 0.7440

    Source: www.fxonlinenews.com
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    EUR/USD 12/5/2016
    MAY 12, 2016

    The EUR/USD pair reversed a six-day decline this Wednesday, rallying up to a fresh weekly high of 1.1446, and holds nearby by the end of the day, as dollar’s upward strength continued fading. There were no relevant macroeconomic releases, with the key data being released later on this week as on the US will offer its Retail Sales, PPI and consumer sentiment figures on Friday, while Europe will publish the EU and German first quarter GDP estimates.

    The pair has moved above a resistance, now support around 1.1420, the 50% retracement of its latest
    bullish
    run, but remains below the 38.2% retracement of the same rally around 1.1460, also a major static resistance level that needs to be broken to trigger some follow-up towards the 1.1500 region. The 4 hours chart has lost its neutral stance, and if fact points for a continued advance as the 20 SMA has advanced below the current level and is currently crossing above its 100 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have corrected partially extreme overbought readings, before resuming their advances.

    Support levels: 1.1420 1.1370 1.1335
    Resistance levels: 1.1460 1.1500 1.1545

    Source: www.fxonlinenews.com
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    AUD/USD 12/5/2016
    MAY 12, 2016

    The AUD/USD pair recovered up to 0.7401, with the Aussie underpinned by a jump in local consumer confidence, up by 8.5%, its largest increase in nearly six years, according to the Westpac index. Local sentiment seems to have improved on the back of the RBA rate cut, which eased fears over the economic future. A nice recovery in gold prices, also helped the Aussie, albeit the upward corrective movement is quite shallow compared to the last two-week’s decline. Anyway, the pair keeps recovering after testing 0.7300 earlier this week, and technical readings in the 4 hours chart suggest that the recovery may extend, particularly on an upward acceleration above 0.7400, as the price is currently developing above a flat 20 SMA, while the technical indicators are standing above their mid-lines, although with no upward strength. Above the mentioned resistance, the rally can extend up to 0.7440, the 38.2% retracement of this year’s decline, while beyond this last, 0.7510, May 5th daily high, is the next probable bullish target.

    Support levels: 0.7335 0.7290 0.7240

    Resistance levels: 0.7390 0.7440 0.7480

    Source: www.fxonlinenews.com
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    AUD/USD 16/5/2016
    MAY 16, 2016

    The Aussie broke below the 0.7300 figure against the greenback for the first time since February this year, accelerating its downward move on worldwide stocks’ declines and looking now vulnerable to further losses. Australia will release the RBA´s latest Minutes this week, and the monthly jobs report for April, which may fueled the decline, particularly if Governor Stevens suggests another rate cut for the upcoming months. The AUD/USD pair closed lower for a third consecutive week, and moreover, broke below the 50% retracement of this year’s rally on Friday, with the bearish trend firmly in place according to the daily technical readings, given that the Momentum indicator hovers near oversold territory, while the RSI indicator presents a bearish slope around 30. The 20 SMA in the mentioned time frame has turned sharply
    bearish
    and stands around 0.7540, too far away to be relevant at the time being, but a clear sign of bears’ strength. Shorter term, technical indicators are also biased south near oversold territory, whilst the 20 SMA converges with the mentioned 50% retracement in the 0.7330 region, a level that if reached, will likely attract selling interest.

    Support levels: 0.7250 0.7210 0.7165

    Resistance levels: 0.7290 0.7330 0.7370

    Source: www.fxonlinenews.com
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    USD/JPY 16/5/2016
    MAY 16, 2016

    The USD/JPY pair surged up to 109.54, its highest for the week last Friday, following the release of encouraging US data, but quickly reversed course and closed below the 109.00 figure although up for the week. BOJ’s Governor Kuroda reiterated on Friday that the Central Bank will not hesitate to ease more if needed, but his wording lately, is barely enough to prevent the JPY from appreciating strongly. Daily basis, the advance has stalled at the 61.8% retracement of the 111.88/105.54 decline at 109.54, having therefore completed a major upward corrective move. In the same chart, the technical indicators head lower below their mid-lines, whilst the price is far below its moving averages, all of which maintains the dominant bearish trend alive. In the 4 hours chart, the price has been trapped between its 100 SMA, at 108.60, and the 200 SMA, around 109.20, for most of this past week, with limited spikes outside the range being quickly reversed. A downward acceleration below 108.20 should increase chances of a bearish continuation, down to the 107.10 region, particularly if risk aversion extends beyond the beginning of this week.

    Support levels: 108.60 108.20 107.70

    Resistance levels: 109.00 109.50 110.00

    Source: www.fxonlinenews.com
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    USD/JPY 17/5/2016
    MAY 17, 2016

    The USD/JPY pair held within a limited range for most of this Monday, barely advancing above the 109.00 figure in the US afternoon as Wall Street posted a nice comeback. During the upcoming Asian session, Japan will release the first estimate of its Q1 GDP, expected to result at 0.1%, after falling 0.3% in the last quarter of 2015, but there’s an unconfirmed rumor that the third-largest economy has likely shrunk in the first three months of the year, which may fuel speculation that the BOJ will have no choice but to add stimulus in their upcoming June meeting. In the meantime, the short term picture is bullish, although there’s a clear absence of strength in technical readings, as in the 1 hour chart, the price is barely a few pips above a flat 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators are advancing modestly from their mid-lines, pretty much looking neutral at the time being. In the 4 hours chart, the technical picture is quite alike, with the technical indicators barely aiming higher around their mid-lines, and the price stuck around a bearish 200 SMA. Last week high at 109.54 stands also for the 61.8% retracement of the latest daily bearish run, and a break above it is required to confirm a continued advance that can extend up to 110.60.

    Support levels: 108.60 108.20 107.70

    Resistance levels: 109.55 110.10 110.60

    Source: www.fxonlinenews.com
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    USD/JPY Analysis.
    May 18th, 2016.

    The USD/JPY pair was unable to rally beyond the 61.8% retracement of its latest bearish run at 109.55, having, however, managed to post a fresh weekly high of 109.63. US positive data was not enough to boost the pair, as US stocks turned sharply lower after a strong opening, on speculation the FED may act next June. The pair held above the 50% retracement of the same rally around 108.70, maintaining a neutral stance in the short term, but with the downside limited, given that in the 1 hour chart, the price is holding above its 100 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have lost upward strength, but remain within positive territory. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators have turned flat around their mid-lines, whilst the price stands a few pips above a bearish 200 SMA. The Japanese yen can advance during the upcoming Asian session, particularly if local share markets follow their overseas counterparts, with a break below 108.70 opening doors for a continued decline towards the 108.00 region.

    Support levels: 108.70 108.30 107.90

    Resistance levels: 109.55 110.10 110.60

    Source: http://www.fxonlinenews.com/analysis/usdjpy-1852016/
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    EUR/USD Analysis.
    May 19th, 2016.

    The American dollar gained ground early Wednesday, with the EUR/USD pair falling down to a fresh 3-week low of 1.1255 in the European morning, weighed by news showing that the EU slipped back into deflation in April. The EU preliminary estimate of inflation showed that the CPI fell 0.2% compared to a year before, while monthly basis it came out flat at 0.0%. The pair stabilized then below the 1.1300 level, as investors took a step back ahead of the FOMC Minutes of the April meeting. The document resulted hawkish, as most FED officials saw a rate hike as likely for next June, if data show an improving economy, triggering a dollar rally across the board, and sending the EUR/USD pair to fresh lows. The EUR/USD pair stands a few pips above April’s low of 1.1215, and the technical picture favors a break below the level as in the 4 hours chart, the price is accelerating far below a bearish 20 SMA, whilst the Momentum indicator heads sharply lower below its mid-line, whilst the RSI also heads south around 25. A break below the mentioned monthly low, can see the pair testing the 1.1160 level during the upcoming sessions, with the main bearish target being 1.1120, a major static support level. Should the decline extend below this last, dollar’s momentum will likely extend in the longer run, with scope to test 1.1000 during the upcoming week.
    Support levels: 1.1215 1.1160 1.1120
    Resistance levels: 1.1245 1.1280 1.133

    Source: http://www.fxonlinenews.com/analysis/eurusd-1952016/

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