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Discussion in 'Analisa Fundamental' started by FxNetltd, Nov 27, 2013.

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    The euro briefly made a one-month high versus the dollar early on Wednesday and briefly brushed the key $1.3600 level. The strength was partly due to positive news from Germany that German Chancellor Angela Merkel reached a deal with the Social Democratic party (SDP) after weeks of negotiations following the German federal elections in September.

    The euro ended the Asian session at $1.3579 with a 0.05% gain. Against the yen, the euro made a new 4-year high of 138.15 and ended with a 0.3% gain at 137.86 yen.

    The dollar fared a little better against the yen, and managed to bounce off 2-day lows of 101.13 and regained some losses, adding around 0.2 percent to 101.50 yen.

    Yen is struggling against most major counterparts due to the Bank of Japan's monetary easing policies and its commitment to bond buying which weakens yen.

    Meanwhile today BOJ board member Sayuri Shirai reiterated in a speech in Tokyo that the BOJ should not hesitate to ease monetary policy further if risks arise to the economy.

    The Australian dollar remained weak around 3-month lows against the greenback. Weighing on the aussie is the threat of interest rate cuts by the RBA after comments from Governor Stevens that the AUD value is too high. The aussie hit a low of 0.9087 on Tuesday and traded at around $0.9124 in Asia today.
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    Market report By Fxnet 15 Jan
    Asian Session – Dollar broadly stronger after US retail sales
    The dollar resumed strength after solid US retail sales data from Tuesday and managed to regain ground against the majors. Also buoying the greenback were hawkish comments from two Federal Reserve policymakers (Richard Fisher and Charles Plosser ) who signaled they are in favour of tapering and ending the Fed’s current bond buying program.

    Plosser even downplayed the weak December US jobs report released on Friday.
    As a result of investors’ expectations of a rate hike now being brought forward, this helped lift the dollar higher against most of its major counterparts.
    December US retail sales edged up in December with a core spending index posting a big increase, a sign the US economy gathered steam at the end of last year and was poised for stronger growth in 2014.
    The dollar built on Tuesday’s recovery against the yen, with USDJPY rising to highs of 104.46 in the Asian session. Yesterday the dollar rallied more than 1% against the yen to pull away from a near one-month low of 102.85 yen.
    The Australian dollar was a currency that stood out as it slid nearly 1% to $0.8910, reversing a move towards $0.9100 cents early in the week.
    The euro lost gains made from a rally yesterday against the dollar that was inspired by ECB Nowotny’s upbeat comments about the Eurozone growth outlook.

    The EURUSD retreated from a two-week high just shy of $1.3700 hit on Tuesday to trade at $1.3626, down 0.3% from late US session levels.
    The euro stayed close to yesterday’s high when EURJPY rose to 142.61 yen, slipping slightly to 142.37.
    Sterling fell back moderately in line with broad dollar strength, with GBPUSD slipping from $1.6443 to $1.6412.
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    Market Report 16 Jan
    Asian Session - Aussie suffers big losses jobs data
    The Australian dollar suffered heavy losses in the wake of the release of the December employment report. Jobs in Australia decreased by 22,600 last month, following November’s revised 15,400 gain, according to the country’s statistics bureau. This was a huge miss compared with a 10,000 increase predicted by economists. The unemployment rate remained at 5.8 percent.
    AUDUSD tumbled over 100 pips after the data, falling to a low of $0.8794 from a pre-data level of $0.8903. On Monday the aussie hit a one-month high of $0.9085.
    The US dollar continued to be the best performer as growing consensus in markets is that the Federal Reserve will continue with tapering on speculation the US economic recovery is strong enough.
    Lending support to the dollar is stronger than expected manufacturing and PPI data and an upbeat Empire State manufacturing index from Tuesday.
    The dollar rose for a third day against the yen, its longest advance this month, reaching a high of 104.91.
    Initial jobless claims data in the US will be released today and will be the next risk event for the dollar. The figure for claims the previous week (period ending January 11) is forecast to fall by 328,000, which would be the fewest since November. The prior number was 330,000.
    EURUSD opened in Asia at $1.3602 after trading as low as $1.3581 yesterday. The pair rose to $1.3627.
    EURJPY rose in tandem with USDJPY, up from 142.23 early to highs of 142.90 yen.
    GBPUSD trading was more muted however, as the pair traded a range between $1.6345 and $1.6373.
    In the upcoming European session, a key risk event for the euro will be Eurozone inflation data (CPI).
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    Market Report 17-01-2014
    Asian Session - Tight ranges as mixed data keep markets subdued
    There was limited movement during the Asian session as markets took on a risk-off tone, and major currency pairs merely consolidated prior moves. Mixed US data has resulted in a mixed dollar.
    Soft US inflation data and disappointing US corporate results dampened investor sentiment, although an upbeat Philly Fed Manufacturing Index released on Thursday helped keep the US dollar steady. Also initial jobless claims beat economists’ forecasts, and this kept the Fed taper expectations alive.
    USDJPY saw consolidation in Asia after a big reversal yesterday to lows of 104.15 yen. The pair was capped below 104.40 in Asia, trading a tight 20-pip range.
    Other yen crosses were mostly range-bound too as risk aversion led to some yen strength due to safe haven flows into the Japanese currency.
    EURJPY traded a tight 141.85-142.15 range around 142.00. AUDJPY consolidated losses following the plunge to 91.62 yesterday and traded between 91.75-92.10. GBPJPY traded between 170.11-69.
    The euro is under pressure on deflation fears after not so spectacular Euro Zone inflation data yesterday. CPI came in at 0.8% m/m as expected while the core figure actually came in lower than expected at 0.7% versus 0.9% forecast.
    EURUSD opened in Asia at $1.3618 and could only manage a $1.3610-20 range.
    Sterling remains weak, with GBPUSD trading within a range all week, with support at $1.6313 and resistance at $1.6382. Key risk for the pound will be UK retail sales data due later today.
    AUDUSD opened in Asia at $0.8820 and consolidated losses after a huge plunge to a 3-1/2 year low yesterday on the back of dismal Australian jobs data. Speculation is now growing that the Reserve Bank of Australia could cut interest rates.
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    Market Report 21-01-2014
    Asian Session – USDJPY bounces on broad yen weakness
    The US holiday on Monday and limited data releases kept volumes thin even in the Asian session. Most major currency pairs lacked clear direction although the yen pairs made some recovery in Asia this morning.
    USDJPY rebounded to 104.68 in Asia from the US session low of 103.90. The US dollar is expected to improve as expectations grow for more Fed tapering and a more solid US economic recovery. Meanwhile a rising Tokyo Nikkei led to less flows into the yen.
    Other yen crosses were bid, with EURJPY up from 141.07 to 141.823 and GBPJPY from 170.97 to 171.95.
    EURUSD opened in Asia at 1.3550 after a very quiet North American session due to the US public holiday. The pair moved further off 2-month lows to a session high of 1.3560. This level proved to be strong resistance and due to the broadly stronger dollar, the euro was pressured down to the lower 1.3540s.
    GBPUSD did not take any clear direction in Asia, continuing to trade sideways since it surged on strong UK retail sales data on Friday. Cable traded a range of 1.6410 and 1.6434.
    AUDUSD edged slightly higher 0.8836, making a recovery from Monday’s more than 3-year low of 0.8755.
    Looking ahead to the European session, German data will be in focus and could impact the euro. January’s ZEW economic sentiment index will be released, with a forecast of 64.0, compared to a previous 62.0.
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    Market Report 22-01-2014
    Asian Session - Yen weakens after Bank of Japan keeps monetary policy on hold
    The main focus in the Asian session today was the Bank of Japan policy meeting. The yen briefly jumps higher after the BoJ kept policy unchanged, which was expected.
    Disappointment arose as some investors had hoped for additional easing measures sooner rather than later ahead of a scheduled sales tax hike in April. As a result, the yen fell back down.
    USDJPY had a choppy session. The pair traded above 104.15 before the BoJ announcement, then dipped to 103.95 before climbing back up to 104.56. EURJPY also see-sawed, and swung from lows of 141.04 to highs of 141.75.
    The Australian dollar mostly stole the spotlight today, after a surprise surge on the back of domestic inflation data. Australian CPI rose 0.9% in the fourth quarter, the biggest pace of increase in over two years. Annual inflation rose 2.6%, the highest since 2011. The data now lessens the chance of a rate cut by the Reserve bank of Australia.
    AUDUSD gained about 0.7% to $0.8863 after rising as high as $0.8873 from a session low of $0.8784. The pair has moved further away from a 3-1/2-year low of $0.8756 reached on Monday.
    In other currencies, the euro was relatively steady against the dollar, as is typical in the Asian time zone. EURUSD briefly broke above $1.3600 before edging down to $1.3555.
    Sterling will be in focus later today as key risk events could impact the currency. The UK will be releasing data on employment. GBPUSD opened in Asia at $1.6475 and traded a 20-pip range.
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    Market Report 24-01-2014
    Asian Session – Dollar broadly lower after disappointing US data
    Risk - off sentiment dominated the markets in Asia after disappointing US data in the prior session dampened the mood. As a result, the US dollar was broadly weaker against most of its major counterparts following a series of soft data.
    USDJPY plunged to a low of 102.96 after the data late on Thursday, and was bought on the dip in Asia. The dollar attempted to recover some losses but the upside momentum was weak and it fell back to 103.22 yen.
    The euro consolidated gains made yesterday when it was propelled to a four-week high against the dollar on the back of upbeat manufacturing and services activity data from the Eurozone. Other data indicated that consumer confidence in the region improved more than forecast in January, also helping buoy the euro.
    EURUSD opened in Asia at 1.3696 just shy of last night’s 1.3699 high but remained above 1.3680 throughout the Asian session.
    Sterling remains strong, buoyed by upbeat UK jobs data on Wednesday which showed the unemployment rate dropped to 7.1% from 7.4% the three months to December.
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    Market Report 27-01-2014
    Asian Session – Yen remains buoyed on safe haven demand as emerging markets tumble
    Risk - off sentiment still lingered in at the start of the new trading week, as the turmoil in emerging markets continue to dominate the mood. The Japanese currency gained after being buoyed by safe haven demand in volatile markets as emerging markets tumbled.
    An indication of how much volatility existed in markets last week, the Emerging Markets ETF VIX (Volatility Index) surged 40%, which was the largest jump in over 2-1/2 years.
    USDJPY fell early in the Asian session, dipping over 45 pips to a low of 101.74 but recovered quickly to rise back above 102, ending at 102.4, back to around Friday’s levels.
    Yen crosses traded similarly, with EURJPY down to 139.25 before bouncing to 140.25 while GBPJPY fell to 167.86 and then 169.11. AUDJPY saw lows of 88.40 before rising to 89.50.
    It should be noted that trading volumes were thinner than normal today due to the holiday in Australia.
    The US dollar will be the currency of focus this week as the Federal Reserve starts a two-day policy meeting tomorrow.
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    Market report 28-01-2014
    Asian Session - Pound rises as focus turns to UK GDP data
    After much volatility in currency markets on Monday due to the emerging market turmoil, Tuesday was calmer.
    While most major currency pairs were steady and range-bound, especially EURUSD, USDJPY, the most notable moves were made by the pound, as GBPUSD extended gains into the Asian session.
    The pound climbed back to a near 3-year high against the dollar ahead of key UK data later today. GDP numbers will be released, with expectations for a confirmation of strong growth in the British economy in the last quarter.
    GBPUSD rose to $1.6624 from $1.6582 at the open of Asian session trading. The pound’s strength may out some pressure on the dollar for now.
    However the dollar could be expected to regain a firmer footing against the yen as the Federal Reserve meeting comes closer. The Fed begins its 2-day monthly monetary policy meeting today and will announce its policy decision tomorrow.
    There are expectations that the Fed will scale back its stimulus further and this is helping pull the dollar off a 7-week low against the Japanese yen. USDJPY was steady in Asia and barely moved while trading sideways, ending the session at 102.61 yen.
    The Australian has also proved to be resilient and was another currency that performed well in Asia today. AUDUSD rose to $0.8791, well above Friday’s low of $0.8659.

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