" "

forexchief

Forex Trading Market Analysis Overview by FXCC Sep 25 2012

Discussion in 'Diskusi Forex' started by ericwatson, Sep 24, 2012.

Share This Page

  1. ericwatson

    ericwatson New Member

    Messages:
    239
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Forex Trading Market Analysis Overview by FXCC

    2012-09-24 01:14 GMT

    Will the RBA cut rates in Sept? - NAB

    The RBA 2 October rate decision has many media commentators expecting a rate cut and the market. NAB: "The Minutes from September were softer than the post Board Statement when they added the line that 'The current assessment of the inflation outlook continued to provide scope to adjust policy in response to any significant deterioration in the outlook for growth.â€￾' But we have not seen a 'significant deterioration in the outlook for growth' since early September. At this stage we'd say a cut is less a 50% chance."

    London session ahead will bring all kinds of talks related to EZ debt crisis as Greece is urged by Troika to reduce budgets even more, Spain will release plenty of key data on coming Friday, and rumors on ESM to be leveraged up to € 2 Trillion make the rounds. In the economic agenda most important and almost only data to be released will be German IFO business climate at 08:00 GMT although the Netherlands final GDP will also be published 30 minutes earlier. European Parliament Committee hearing on Libor scandal will also take place today.


    Read More At https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/24092012/


    UPCOMING EVENTS

    2012-09-24 06:00 GMT | United Kingdom. Nationwide Housing Prices (Aug)

    2012-09-24 08:00 GMT | Germany. IFO - Business Climate (Sep)

    2012-09-24 12:30 GMT | United States. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Aug)

    2012-09-24 14:30 GMT | United States. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (Sep)



    FOREX NEWS

    2012-09-24 04:20 GMT | EUR/USD slips below 1.2950

    2012-09-24 04:07 GMT | USD/JPY rally expected to resume – H.E.Wave

    2012-09-24 03:50 GMT | AUD/NZD above 1.26 off fresh 5-month lows

    2012-09-24 03:07 GMT | NZD/USD under pressure; Regional bourses weigh


    TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

    -----------------------------------
    EURUSD 1.29472 | 1.29476
    Daily Weekly Monthly

    [​IMG]

    1.3045 | 1.3012 | 1.2979
    1.2927 | 1.2895 |1.2860

    SUMMARY : Up
    TREND : Sideway
    MA10 : Bearish
    MA20 : Bearish
    STOCHASTIC : Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Technical Summary: Instrument trades below the moving averages and we expect the pair to extend its losses later on today. Main scenario: Without significant economic news announcement, further consolidation looks reasonable today. The price progress below the next support level at 1.2927 (S1) might expose next targets at 1.2895 (S2) and 1.2860 (S3). Alternative scenario: The upside movement is limited by next resistance level at 1.2979 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable next target at 1.3012 (R2) and any further gain would then be limited by last resistance at 1.3045 (R3).

    -----------------------------------
    GBPUSD 1.62171 | 1.62182
    Daily Weekly Monthly

    [​IMG]

    1.6295 | 1.6245 | 1.6234
    1.6197 | 1.6169 | 1.6141

    SUMMARY : Up
    TREND : Sideway
    MA10 : Bearish
    MA20 : Bearish
    STOCHASTIC : Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Technical Summary: GBPUSD trades in negative tone on the short term perspective however medium term bias remains positive. Main scenario: Our next targets for current retracement formation locates at 1.6197 (S1), break here is required to put focus on the next target at 1.6169 (S2). If the market gains momentum we suggest last support at 1.6141 (S3). Alternative scenario: Next resistance level is placed at 1.6234 (R1). Brake here might eventually activate bulls pressure and enable targets at 1.6245 (R2) and 1.6295 (R3).

    -----------------------------------
    USDJPY 78.043 | 78.047
    Daily Weekly Monthly

    [​IMG]

    78.47 | 78.33 | 78.18
    78.00 | 77.85 | 77.69

    SUMMARY : Sideway
    TREND : Sideway
    MA10 : Bearish
    MA20 : Bearish
    STOCHASTIC : Neutral


    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Technical Summary: Neutral hourly studies suggest further consolidation development. We are not expecting significant volatility increase today however market is set for new targets achievement. Main scenario: If the price manage to stay below the next resistance at 78.18 (R1), we expect the see retest of our support at 78.00 (S1). Break below that level would suggest next targets at 77.85 (S2) and 77.69 (S3) in potential. Alternative scenario: Break above the 78.18 (R1)would enable higher target at 78.33 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited by 78.47 (R3).


    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (http://www.fxcc.com/)
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2012
    " "
  2. ericwatson

    ericwatson New Member

    Messages:
    239
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    2012-09-25 01:45 GMT

    RBA Financial Stability Review: Cautiously upbeat on the economy

    According to the RBA Financial Stability Review, Australian households remain well positioned to pay back their debts. Looking at business appetite for debt, the central bank expects it to recover while reaffirming that corporate balance sheets are in good shape. The RBA commented that IMF tests indicate banks are likely to withstand severe shocks, although they remain strong to cope with any potential EZ shock, which they expect is likely to remain core risk to the global financial system. RBA warned that the decrease in profits by banks may promote unwanted riskier lending. RBA is confident that modest employment growth will continue, according to latest survey observations.

    Busy day ahead for the London session in the sovereign debt auctions front, with Italy selling zero coupon bonds and the Netherlands up to € 2.5B worth of 20 year bonds, while Spain will try to sell 3 and 6 month bills. Italy's 10 year bond yields have been around 5% for current week while Spain's one have been below 6%, around multi-week lows.


    Read More At https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/24092012/


    UPCOMING EVENTS

    2012-09-25 12:30 GMT | Canada. Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)

    2012-09-25 13:00 GMT | European Monetary Union. ECB President Draghi's Speech

    2012-09-25 14:00 GMT | United States. Consumer Confidence (Sep)

    2012-09-25 17:30 GMT | United States. Treasury's Geithner Speech


    FOREX NEWS

    2012-09-25 04:43 GMT | GBP/USD still sideways below 1.6300

    2012-09-25 02:31 GMT | AUD/USD snaps higher post China data

    2012-09-25 01:26 GMT | Scenarios for EUR/USD to target 1.25 in Q4 - JPMorgan

    2012-09-25 00:51 GMT | Has USD/JPY found temporal bottom?


    TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

    EURUSD 1.29362 | 1.29368
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
    -----------------------------------

    [​IMG]

    1.3013 | 1.2984 | 1.2956
    1.2923 | 1.2891 | 1.2860

    SUMMARY: Up
    TREND: Upward penetration
    MA10: Bullish
    MA20: Bullish
    STOCHASTIC: Neutral

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Technical Summary: EURUSD formed retracement formation yesterday, turning intraday bias to the negative side however market sentiment remains positive on the medium term perspective. ECB President Draghi's Speech In focus today. Main scenario: Further easing might initiate protective orders execution and drive market price below the next support level at 1.2923 (S1). Next expected targets for locates at 1.2891 (S2) and 1.2860 (S3). Alternative scenario: Next resistance level is seen at 1.2956 (R1), clearance here would open way for strengthening towards to next targets at 1.2984 (R2) and 1.3013 (R3).

    GBPUSD 1.62254 | 1.62266
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
    -----------------------------------

    [​IMG]

    1.6295 | 1.6270 | 1.6242
    1.6212 | 1.6185 | 1.6157

    SUMMARY: Up
    TREND: Upward penetration
    MA10: Bullish
    MA20: Bullish
    STOCHASTIC: Neutral

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Technical Summary: The pair continues to extend its weakness on the short term perspective. We expect the pair to remain on a gradual downtrend formation today. Main scenario: Our 20 sma at 1.6212 (S1) acts as next support level. Below here opens the way for a return to 1.6185 (S2) price level. Potential is seen to reach final target at 1.6157 (S3) in perspective. Alternative scenario: Risk of upside penetration is seen above the next resistance at 1.6242(R1). Clearance here would suggest next targets at 1.6270 (R2) and 1.6295 (R3) in potential.

    USDJPY 77.790 | 77.796
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
    -----------------------------------

    [​IMG]

    78.20 | 78.06 | 77.91
    77.73 | 77.59 | 77.44

    SUMMARY: Down
    TREND: Sideway
    MA10: Bearish
    MA20: Bearish
    STOCHASTIC: Oversold

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Technical Summary: Pair has settled negative bias on the hourly timeframe however pull back formation is possible. Today’s trading session has set up negative sentiment with instrument depreciation to -0.12% from its opening price. Main scenario: If instrument holds its momentum, we expect to see penetration below the next support at 77.73 (S1). In such scenario we suggest our next targets to be placed at 77.59 (S2) and 77.44 (S3). Alternative scenario: Our 20 sma might be considered as dynamic resistance for the instrument. Successful attack to the 77.91 (R1) price level might encourage correction formation with next targets in focus at 78.06 (R2) and 78.20 (R3).


    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (http://www.fxcc.com/)
  3. ericwatson

    ericwatson New Member

    Messages:
    239
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    2012-09-26 03:27 GMT

    S&P downgrades South Australia

    Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services said today that it has lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on the Australian State of South Australia and the state’s financing arm, South Australian Government Financing Authority, to ‘AA’ from ‘AA+’. At the same time, we affirmed the ‘A-1+’ short-term rating on both entities. The outlook is stable.

    "The London session will be a relatively quiet one in EUR macro related terms, starting with French consumer confidence at 06:45 GMT, followed by Italy retail sales at 08:00 GMT, and German preliminary CPI at 12:00 GMT. In the sovereign debt auctions front Germany will try to sell up to € 5B in 10 year bunds at 06:00 GMT, while Italy will auction up to € 9B in 6-month bills. Germany 10 year yields closed yesterday in a relative safe 1.55% well above all time record lows from July at 1.12%, while Italy 10y yields hover around 5%. EU Vice President Rehn will attend final day at Havard University today." Traders should also be alerted to possible headlines on the Spanish-bailout, protests front, Greece funding issues and any other EZ debt crisis-related news.


    Read More At https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/26092012/


    UPCOMING EVENTS

    2012-09-26 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. BOE Credit Conditions Survey

    2012-09-26 10:00 GMT | United Kingdom. CBI Distributive Trades Survey - Realized

    2012-09-26 14:00 GMT | United States. New Home Sales

    2012-09-26 14:30 GMT | United States. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change


    FOREX NEWS

    2012-09-26 04:43 GMT | GBP/USD stops triggered below 1.6150

    2012-09-26 04:19 GMT | EUR/USD breaks down to 9-day lows

    2012-09-26 03:06 GMT | AUD/CAD, a good sell into strength - Westpac

    2012-09-26 02:57 GMT | AUD/JPY decline extends; 38.2% Fibo support in sight


    TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

    EURUSD 1.28735 / 1.28739
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
    -----------------------------------

    [​IMG]

    1.2970 | 1.2935 | 1.2899
    1.2860 | 1.2827 | 1.2793

    SUMMARY: Down
    TREND: Downward penetration
    MA10: Bearish
    MA20: Bearish
    STOCHASTIC: Neutral

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Technical Summary: Technically, market sentiment is bearish now and we expect further instrument depreciation on the medium term perspective. However fresh low, form today is acting as a bottom peak of downwards channel on the hourly chart and pull back is possible towards to our resistance levels on the short term Main scenario: Further price decrease is expected below the next support level at 1.2860 (S1). Break here is required to enable next targets at 1.2827 (S2) and 1.2793 (S3). Alternative scenario: On the other hand, consolidation looks reasonable today. The price progress above the next resistance at 1.2899 (R1) might expose next targets at 1.2935 (R2) and 1.2970 (R3) in potential.

    GBPUSD 1.61679 | 1.61686
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
    -----------------------------------

    [​IMG]

    1.6237 | 1.6214 | 1.6190
    1.6149 | 1.6125 | 1.6099

    SUMMARY: Down
    TREND: Downward penetration
    MA10: Bearish
    MA20: Bearish
    STOCHASTIC: Neutral

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Technical Summary: Pair already lost -0.15% percent from its opening price today and we expect some volatility increase later on today. Medium term bias is negative for the instrument and we might see new lows ahead. Main scenario: Next support level locates at fresh low, formed today -1.6149 (S1), pushdown of the price is possible below this level. We suggest next targets at 1.6125 (S2) and 1.6099 (S3). Alternative scenario: Failure to go lower suggested support level will put in focus our resistance level at 1.6190 (R1), break here would suggest next targets at 1.6214 (R2) and 1.6237 (R3).

    USDJPY 77.743 | 77.749
    DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
    -----------------------------------

    [​IMG]

    78.20 | 78.06 | 77.91
    77.65 | 77.48 | 77.31

    SUMMARY: Down
    TREND: Sideway
    MA10: Bearish
    MA20: Bullish
    STOCHASTIC: Neutral

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Technical Summary: Yesterday instrument trades without a priority in direction. Stochastic Oscillator is approaching bottom zone and we expect to see some consolidation ahead in such market setup with price progress towards to our resistance levels. Main scenario: A break of technically important level at 77.91 (R1) might determine positive bias for today. Next suggested targets for upside direction locates at 78.06 (R2) and 78.20 (R3). Alternative scenario: If the pair gain momentum on the down side and retest our support level at 77.65 (S1), we suggest next targets at 77.48 (S2) and 77.31 (S3).


    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (http://www.fxcc.com/)

Share This Page