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COZfx: AUD/USD weekly outlook

Discussion in 'Analisa Fundamental' started by harryer, Apr 15, 2013.

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  1. harryer

    harryer Member

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    COZforex: The Australian dollar retreated from a 13-week high against its US counterpart on Friday, as downbeat US economic data sparked fears over the outlook for growth in the world’s largest economy, bolstering safe haven demand.

    AUD/USD hit 1.0581 on Thursday, the pair’s highest since January 11; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0503 by close of trade, still holding to a gain of 1.16% for the week. COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said, AUD/USD is predicted to find support at 1.0508, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 1.0463. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.0591, and a rose through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.0629.

    The US Commerce Department said in a report Friday that retail sales fell 0.4% in March, the largest decline in nine months and missing expectations for a 0.1% increase.

    Earlier in the week, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s March meeting showed that several policymakers favoured an early end to the bank’s asset purchase program. The Fed minutes, which were inadvertently released ahead of schedule, showed that that a few policymakers saw quantitative easing tapering around midyear, while several others believed it would be appropriate to slow later in the year and to stop by the end of the year.

    However, the impact of the minutes was muted as the meeting was held before nonfarm payrolls data showed that the US economy added far fewer than expected jobs in March.

    Meanwhile, disappointing jobs data out of Australia also weighed on demand for the Aussie. The Australian Bureau of Statistics said Thursday the economy lost 36,100 jobs in March, far more than the expected 5,000 drop, after 74,000 jobs were created the previous month.

    The report added that Australia's unemployment rate ticked up unexpectedly to 5.6% last month, from 5.4% in February. Analysts had expected the unemployment rate to remain unchanged. In the coming week, the US is to publish a broad range of economic data, with reports on manufacturing activity, the housing sector and inflation due for release. Investors will be closely watching this data as they attempt to gauge the strength of the U.S. recovery.

    Market participants will also be watching a flurry of Chinese economic reports due this week to gauge the strength of the world’s second largest economy and a key trading partner of the Pacific nation.

    (COZ forex UK)
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