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COZfx: AUD/USD down on Goldman forecasts

Discussion in 'Analisa Fundamental' started by harryer, Jun 12, 2013.

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  1. harryer

    harryer Member

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    COZforex: The Australian dollar continued its bearish ways against its US rival amid Tuesday’s Asian session following less-than-encouraging comments from Goldman Sachs.

    In Asian trading Tuesday, AUD/USD plunged 0.61% to 0.9407 and earlier traded as low as 0.9382. Coz forex senior derivatives trader Daniel • Moloney said, AUD/USD is predicted to find support at 0.9377, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 0.9329. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 0.9478, and a rose through could take it to the next resistance line of 0.9531.

    The Aussie came under added pressure after Goldman Sachs pared its 2013 and 2014 GDP growth forecasts for the world’s 12th-largest economy. Goldman Sachs, the largest Wall Street investment bank, said it believes Australia’s economy will grow 2% this year, well below the previous forecast of 2.4% growth. Goldman said the Australian economy will grow 1.9% next year, well below the bank’s original estimate of growth of 2.7%.

    Specific to the Aussie, Goldman said it sees AUD/USD trading to 0.8500 within a year. That is down from the bank’s previous forecast of 0.9000 though Goldman has previously said an extreme scenario is AUD/USD at 0.8000.

    Falling export prices coupled with the strong Aussie and reduced corporate and public spending are among the reasons cited by Goldman for its growth cuts. The bank said there is a 20% chance of recession for Australia, a country that has dodge such a scenario 21 years.

    The Aussie was pounded Monday after official data showed on Sunday that China's consumer price inflation ticked down to an annualized rate of 2.1% last month, from 2.4% in April, confounding expectations for a rose to 2.5%.

    A separate report showed that industrial production in China rise by an annualized rate of 9.2% in May, disappointing expectations for a 9.4% increase, after a 9.3% increase the previous month. China is Australia's biggest export partner.

    (COZ forex UK)
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