" "

forexchief

Analisa Harian SBOForex

Discussion in 'Broker dan IB' started by sboforex, Jun 1, 2016.

Share This Page

  1. sboforex

    sboforex Member

    Messages:
    390
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    16
    GBP/USD Analysis, June 1, 2016

    The Pound was hit mid American session, by renewed fears of a Brexit, after new polls showed that the “leave” vote is ahead in the EU membership referendum. A telephone poll from ICM/Guardian showed the ‘leave’ vote at 45% compared to 42% to ‘remain’ in the EU, while an online poll from the same firm showed 47% to leave and 44% to remain. The GBP/USD pair, which traded early Europe as high as 1.4724, plummeted to the current 1.4480 price zone, and seems poised to extend its decline, although some consolidation could be expected in the short term, given that in the 1 hour chart, the technical indicators have reached extreme oversold territory, and seem to be losing bearish steam. In the 4 hours chart, the price is below a bearish 20 SMA, whilst its currently breaking below the 200 EMA whilst the technical indicators head sharply lower within negative territory. The next support now comes at 1.4441, May 23rd daily low, with a break below it putting the pair in the path of testing 1.4250.

    Support levels: 1.4585 1.4550 1.4520

    Resistance levels: 1.4655 1.4690 1.4730

    Source: http://fxonlinenews.com/analysis/gbpusd-162016/
    " "
  2. sboforex

    sboforex Member

    Messages:
    390
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    16
    USD/JPY Analysis. June 2nd, 2016.

    The USD/JPY pair plummeted to 109.04, with the Japanese yen initially underpinned by risk aversion surging late Tuesday, but later accelerating its advance on comments from PM Abe, who announced that the sales tax hike will be postponed until 2019 as it could damage domestic demand, and that he will pursue “broad, bold” economic expansion in the autumn. The pair bounced some 50 pips from the mentioned low, but maintains a strongly bearish technical stance in the short term, as in the 1 hour chart, the pair broke below its 100 and 200 SMAs, and even staged a pullback towards this last before resuming its decline, whilst the technical indicators are resuming their declines within bearish territory after erasing oversold conditions. In the 4 hours chart the USD/JPY pair found some buyers around its 200 SMA, but remains contained below the 100 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have lost downward potential, but are currently consolidating near oversold readings, pointing for some consolidation ahead, and risking a deeper decline on a break below the mentioned daily low.

    Support levels: 109.05 108.70 108.30

    Resistance levels: 109.50 110.00 110.40

    Source: http://www.fxonlinenews.com/analysis/usdjpy-262016/
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2016
  3. sboforex

    sboforex Member

    Messages:
    390
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    16
    Gold: view of major top over the last month remains
    June 3, 2016


    In the May 26th email once again affirmed the bearish view (important top at the May 2nd high at $1304) and rolling over of the multi-month topping/channel. The market has indeed continued lower since, currently consolidating from the May 30th low at $1200. Though starting to get oversold after the tumble over the last month, there is still no confirmation of even a short term low “pattern-wise” (5 waves up for example), technicals remains negative (see sell mode on the daily macd) while a more major top is still seen in place (see longer term below), and in turn argues further downside. Further support below that recent $1200 low is seen at the base of the bearish channel from the high (currently at $1187/90) and $1273/76 (50% retracement from the Dec 2015 low at $1046). Nearby resistance is seen at the recent $1220/23 high), the broken base of the bullish channel since Feb (currently at $1230/33) and the ceiling of the bearish channel from the high (currently at $1238/41). Bottom line : despite approaching oversold, there is still no confirmation of even a short term low so far.


    Strategy/position:

    Still short from the Apr 29th sell at $1279 and for now, would continue to stop on a close $3 above the ceiling of the bearish channel from the high. However, will want to get more aggressive on increasing signs of a shorter term bottom (slowing downside momentum, 5 waves up on very short term chart) to maintain a good risk/reward in the position.


    Long term outlook:

    No change in the view of an important top at that May 2nd high at $1304 (at least a few months), and as the market has indeed finally “rolled over”. Note that the upmove from Dec to that May high lasted about 5 months (has only been declining for 1 month so far, argues at least another few months of downside), long term technicals have turned negative and the US$ index is still seen completing a more major bottom (though scope for a few weeks of consolidating/bottoming, see email from yesterday, inverse relationship). Additionally as been discussing, this pullback in gold may be “deep” as there is scope for deep declines across a number of correlated markets. This includes silver which is still seen completing a major top at that May 2nd high at $18.00 and with scope for declines all the way back to its Dec 2015 low at $13.60 and even below. Bottom line : important top still seen in place at the May 2nd high at $1304 and with another few months of downside (and likely deep pullback) favored.

    Source: http://fxonlinenews.com/analysis/gold-view-of-major-top-over-the-last-month-remains/
  4. sboforex

    sboforex Member

    Messages:
    390
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    16
    AUD/USD Analysis. June 6th, 2016

    The AUD/USD pair surged to its highest in three weeks, printing 0.7367 last Friday, underpinned by poor US data and a sharp recovery in gold prices. The Aussie has been lately weighed by a surprise rate cut in Australia, alongside with speculation of further rate cuts this 2016 by the RBA, combined with hopes that the FED was ready to hike this summer. The AUD/USD pair plummeted around 700 pips in two months as speculative interest rushed to price in both Central Bank’s possible moves, but now that the FED is seen on-hold this month, the market favors back the antipodean currency. Technically, the daily chart shows that the price recovered above the 50% retracement of this year’s slide around 0.7330, after consolidating around the 61.8% of the same decline for almost two weeks, indicating an interim bottom has been reached, and opening doors for further gains, should the mentioned support hold. Technical indicators in the mentioned time frame head sharply higher, supporting a continued advance, while in the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators have lost upward strength within extreme overbought territory, but hold ground, in line with the longer term perspective.

    Support levels: 0.7330 0.7295 0.7250

    Resistance levels: 0.7375 0.7410 0.7450

    Source: http://www.fxonlinenews.com/analysis/audusd-662016/
  5. sboforex

    sboforex Member

    Messages:
    390
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    16
    Harga Minyak Mentah Menguat ke 2,24%.
    Selasa, 7 Juni 2016.


    Di Bursa Perdagangan New York, Minyak mentah berjangka untuk penyerahan Juli diperdagangkan pada US$ 49.71 per barel, meningkat kuat 2.24%.
    Instrumen ini sebelumnya diperdagangkan dengan sesi tertinggi US$ 49.89 per barel. Minyak mentah akan menghadapi support di US$ 47.75 dan resistance di US$ 49.89.
    Indeks Dolar AS yang memantau kinerja greenback terhadap enam mata uang utama lainnya, turun tipis 0.02% dan diperdagangkan pada US$ 93.92.
    Sementara itu di ICE, Minyak brent untuk penyerahan Agustus naik 1.79% dan diperdagangkan pada US$ 50.53 per barel, sedangkan spread antara kontrak Minyak brent dan Minyak mentah berada pada US$ 0.82 per barel.

    Source: http://www.fxonlinenews.com/market-news/commodity/harga-minyak-mentah-menguat-ke-224/
  6. sboforex

    sboforex Member

    Messages:
    390
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    16
    EUR/USD Analysis. June 8th, 2016.

    The EUR/USD pair trades flat for a second consecutive day, stuck around the 50% retracement of its May decline, the price zone reached after a horrid US Nonfarm Payroll report put the greenback in sell-off mode. The pair held within Monday’s range, as a scarce calendar failed to motive investors. A review of the Eurozone Q1 GDP confirmed that the region grew 0.6% during the first three months of the year, whilst the most relevant piece of news coming from the US was the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index that dropped 0.5 points, or 1.0%, in June, posting a reading of 48.2 against 48.7 in May and expectations of 49.1.
    As for the technical picture, the pair has little directional strength, and there are good chances that it will continue trading range bound ahead of next week’s FED meeting. Overall, technical readings favor the upside, as in the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA has extended its rally after crossing the 100 SMA and is about to advance beyond the 200 SMA, while the RSI indicator keeps consolidating in overbought territory, while the Momentum indicator keeps correcting extreme readings, heading south within positive territory. The line in the sand towards the downside stands at the 1.1280/90 region, where buying interest will likely surge on dips, whilst the critical resistance comes at 1.1460 a major long term static level.
    Support levels: 1.1330 1.1280 1.1240
    Resistance levels: 1.1415 1.1460 1.1500

    Source: fx online news
  7. sboforex

    sboforex Member

    Messages:
    390
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    16
    USD/JPY Analysis. June 9th, 2016.

    The Japanese yen appreciated across the board this Wednesday, finding support in an upward revision of Q1 GDP, up to 0.5% quarterly basis against a previous read of 0.4%. The current account surplus during the first quarter of the year surged to Y1.8785tln, against Y2.3189tln expected, keeping the risk towards the downside for the USD/JPY pair on a net basis. Having traded as low as 106.58, the subsequent intraday recovery staled short from the 107.00 figure. In the short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the price is well below a bearish 100 SMA,, whilst the technical indicators have recovered modestly within negative territory, with not enough strength to confirm an upward continuation at the time being. In the 4 hours chart, the Momentum indicator holds flat below the 100 level while the RSI indicator has barely bounced form oversold readings, also reflecting the absence of buying interest around the pair. Despite movements are expected to be moderated, a break below the 106.60 level should open doors for a steeper decline, down to 105.50 May´s low.
    Support levels: 106.60 106.20 105.90
    Resistance levels: 107.20 107.50 107.85
    Source: fx online news
  8. sboforex

    sboforex Member

    Messages:
    390
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    16
    EUR/USD Analysis. June 10th, 2016

    Risk aversion took over the financial world this Thursday, with stocks weakening, treasury yields reaching multi-month lows and gold rallying to a fresh 3-week high. The catalyst beyond this sudden change in market’s sentiment was Chinese inflation data, up by 2.0% yearly basis, missing expectations of a 2.2% gain and below previous 2.3%. Monthly basis, inflation fell by 0.5%. The Producer Price Index showed an improvement, printing a 2.8% decline against previous 3.4%, improving as a result of higher commodity prices. Contracting inflation, revived fears of a local economic slowdown, and that it could quickly spread to other major economies.
    In the West, the calendar was again scarce, with only Germany releasing its April trade balance, which showed a surplus of €25.6 billion in April 2016, compared to a year earlier, when the surplus was of €21.8 billion, and the US publishing its weekly unemployment claims, which came in at 264K, beating expectations, for the week ending June 3rd.
    For a change, the dollar benefited alongside with gold and the Japanese Yen in a risk-averse environment, leading to a decline in the EUR/USD pair to a fresh weekly low of 1.1305. Having bounced modestly from this last, the technical outlook for the pair is bearish, although a break below the 1.1280/90 region is still required to confirm further slides. Technical readings in the 4 hours chart favor such decline, as the technical indicators have broken below their mid-lines, and stand at two-week lows, although with limited downward strength due to the reduced volumes seen during the last hours of US trading.
    Support levels: 1.1280 1.1250 1.1210
    Resistance levels: 1.1355 1.1380 1.1420

    Source: fx online news
  9. sboforex

    sboforex Member

    Messages:
    390
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    16
    USD/JPY Analysis. June 13, 2016

    The Japanese yen advanced modestly against the greenback last Friday, but closed the week flat around 106.77, as both currencies were favored by a risk aversion environment, triggered by poor Chinese data and Brexit fears. The USD/JPY pair, however, has been confined to a tight 150 pips range, as during the upcoming days, the FED and the BOJ will take economic policy decisions, with both meeting taking place with less than twelve hours difference. The technical bias is bearish, given that the price has been trading below the 61.8% retracement of its latest bullish run around 107.90, with an attempt to advance beyond it being weekly rejected. Furthermore, the daily chart shows that the 100 DMA keeps heading lower well above the current level, while the technical indicators maintain bearish slopes near oversold territory. In the shorter term, the 4 hours chart presents a neutral-to-bearish stance, with the technical indicators heading nowhere within neutral territory, and the moving averages extending their declines far above the current level. The pair may challenge the 105.50 level during the upcoming days, should the FED surprise with a rate hike, and the BOJ stands path on stimulus.
    Support levels: 106.60 106.20 105.90
    Resistance levels: 107.05 107.50 107.90

    Source: fx online news
  10. sboforex

    sboforex Member

    Messages:
    390
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    16
    EUR/USD Analysis. June 14, 2016

    Risk aversion dominated the first half of the day, although sentiment improved after Wall Street’s opening, with US stocks and oil rising. The risk off environment weighed on Asian and European equities and safe havens gold and Japanese yen extended their gains. The American dollar extended its rally against its European rivals and the EUR/USD pair traded as low as 1.1231, but later bounced up to 1.1302, being unable to settle above the critical figure. The lack of macroeconomic releases, added to the upcoming risk events later this week, keeping most major pairs within limited intraday ranges.
    The EUR/USD pair holds near the mentioned 1.1300 level, but is overall looking bearish, as in the 4 hours chart, the rally stalled right below a sharply bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have corrected oversold readings reached earlier in the day, before turning flat within bearish territory. The EU will release its April´s production data this Tuesday, while in the US it will be the turn of Retail Sales, which may bring some action to the pair, although the most likely scenario is that investors remain in cautious mode ahead of the FED’s announcement next Wednesday. Should the pair settle above 1.1295, the 38.2% retracement of the May’s decline, the downside risk will be limited, with scope then to advance up to 1.1385.
    Support levels: 1.1250 1.1215 1.1170
    Resistance levels: 1.1295 1.1340 1.1385

    Source: fx online news

Share This Page