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Discussion in 'Analisa Teknikal' started by chico, May 8, 2015.

  1. chico

    chico Member

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    Date : 8th May 2015

    EURUSD REACTS SLUGGISHLY TO NFP DATA.


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    EURUSD, Daily

    U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 223k in April, with the unemployment rate at 5.4% versus 5.5% previously (revised from 5.5%). That’s the lowest rate since May 2008. But, March’s 126k job gain was revised down to 85k, while February’s 264k was bumped up to 266k. Earnings rose 0.1% after a 0.2% March gain (revised from 0.3%). The workweek was steady at 34.5.
    The FOMC can’t hike in June after this so-so jobs report, if policymakers are true to their data-dependent mantra. The April numbers support the notion that March weakness was a one-off, while other timely data suggest the Q1 contraction in GDP was partly due to a variety of special circumstances, there’s been little sign yet of a robust bounce-back in Q2. Also, many of the key labour market indicators followed by Yellen shouldn’t give her much confidence that the economy can absorb a tightening.
    Even though the unemployment rate is at the lowest level since May 2008 and the labour market participation rate edged up slightly, the latter is still only a tick above the record low of 62.7 from March and September. Additionally, earnings growth is tepid, and employment has moderated. Plus, inflation is still not heating up, nor are conditions in the rest of the world conducive for Fed action yet either (by the FOMC’s own assessments). September still seems like the earliest the Fed could start the rate hikes.
    EURUSD Reaction to the jobs number has been subdued. Even though the last complete 4h candle has closed above the previous candle high the daily low from yesterday has been resisting moves higher. This being a Friday night I don’t expect strong movement to either direction.

    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex
    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  2. chico

    chico Member

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    Date : 18th May 2015.
    TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.

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    EURUSD, Daily
    The euro is consolidating in early week trade after logging a three-month high against the dollar at 1.1466 on Friday. EURJPY and other euro crosses have also shown a similar price action. Recent signs of green shoots in economic vitality in the euro area and the associated view that the ECB may be obliged to taper its QE program at some point has supported euro. In addition, an optimistic view on the Greece situation, has helped to maintain the euro’s underpinning. In April Draghi said that the European Central Bank has no plans to curb or curtail its money-printing programme although it expects euro zone economic recovery to broaden and strengthen. Another likely reason for EURUSD strength has been the soft macro data coming from the US. From retail sales to PPI and Consumer Sentiment figures the data have been softer than expected.
    Since last Tuesday EURUSD has rallied strongly and reached the proximity of 1.1480 resistance. After rising for four days the pair has reacted lower and is at the time of writing attracting buyers at 1.1370 intraday support. This level is also a daily candle high from 6th of May. With support levels being fairly close to the current prices a major correction lower without strong external event is not looking very likely. Therefore, after moves to support levels we should monitor price action for long entry signals. Daily close from 6th May coincides roughly with Friday’s low of 1.1324 and therefore is the nearest support level in the daily chart. Other support levels are at 1.1206 to 1.1232 (a 23.6% Fibonacci level) and 1.1035 to 1.1084 (a 38.6% Fibonacci level). The nearest resistances are 1.1480 and 1.1534. EURUSD is trading close to a resistance level but seems like it might be trying to push higher. However, as the weekly high of 1.1534 is relatively close it is better to trade the long side with a short term expectation only and monitor price action closely.
    [​IMG]
    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)
    Since the weekly close on Friday the 15th May we’ve seen USD and JPY weakness and EUR strength against the other major currencies. GBP has been also gaining against the majors but not as strongly as EUR. Today’s action has been a bit subdued with USD gaining against the others and EUR being strong only against the NZD. The latter has been weak pretty much against all the currencies today. Markets have been quiet this morning as we’ve only seen the early hours trading of the first day of the trading week with not much macro data to move the market.
    Main Macro Events Today
    Japan’s Tertiary Index
    agauge of services fell by 1.0% m/m in March. Contraction was deeper than expected (-0.5%) after the 0.4% m/m gain in February.
    Japan Industrial Production fell 0.8% m/m in March (consensus -0.3%) while y/y drop was 1.7% after the previous drop of 1.2%.
    Switzerland Real Retail Sales surprised to the downside in March with a bigger than expected drop of 2.8% (consensus -2.0%).
    NAHB Housing Market Index: no major change expected from last figures.

    [​IMG]
    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex
    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  3. chico

    chico Member

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    Date : 19th May 2015.
    TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.

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    EURUSD, Daily
    The dollar has retained the perkier tone that established yesterday. EURUSD has been moving lower yesterday and this morning. The move has correlated with a fresh spike in Grexit concerns, though the ECB has stressed that it will not cut ELA to Greek banks should Greece miss an IMF repayment, while Draghi and others at the ECB have been stressing that the QE program will be fully implemented.
    At the time of writing EURUSD is trading below the 23.6% Fibonacci level and at support created by a pivot candle. I pointed to this level in yesterday as a potential support and suggested we look for the correct price action to find long opportunities. At the time of writing price has not reflected buying interest but 4h Stochastics is deeply oversold and the level that turned price higher the last on May 11th is near. EURUSD is now at key levels. If price turns higher above 1.1131 and today’s bar closes above the rising trendline the daily technical picture maintains its upward momentum. If this doesn’t materialise then the next support level is at 1.1035. Nearest daily resistance level is at 1.1324
    [​IMG]
    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)
    This morning’s theme has been EUR weakness against all the currencies. The biggers movers have been EURNZD, EURJPY, EURCAD and EURUSD. The weakest of the lot, EURNZD, is falling lower from a 50 week SMA after creating a shooting star candle yesterday. EURJPY has moved to a pivot support while EURCAD is currently trading at 50 Fibonacci level (measured from May 5th low to the latest high) and EURUSD is also trading at a pivotal support. Therefore a bounce higher in EUR pairs could be in order today.
    Main Macro Events Today
    RBA Meeting’s Minutes:
    Reserve Bank of Australia said May’s lack of policy guidance will not limit action that they deem appropriate at future meetings. The minutes to the May meeting, where they delivered an as-expected 25 bp cut to 2.0%, reference the February cut as another time where they did not offer guidance on the future policy path. On the Australian dollar, they not surprisingly said further deprecation is likely and necessary, a view that also found its way in to the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy.
    RBNZ Inflation Expectations rose slightly in the second quarter remaining below the mid-point of the RBNZ target band. The survey showed business managers expected annual inflation to average 1.32 per cent over the coming year and two-year inflation expectations edged up to 1.85 per cent.
    UK Consumer Price Index and Core CPI: The headline CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 0.0% y/y in April. That would make it two consecutive months at zero after dipping from 0.3% y/y in February. The on-going impact of lower oil prices and the pound’s assent to seven-year highs against the euro maintains a benign outlook for price pressures. The core CPI is likely to remain at 1.0% y/y, unchanged from the prior month. PPI figures will also be released, where we expect -1.7% y/y figure in output prices.
    Eurozone Consumer Price index and Core CPI: At the end of April the ECB report highlighted the decline in inflation expectations has been halted and the numbers confirm that deflation risks have diminished, and that headline rates will continue to rise gradually amid stabilising growth and a weaker EUR and as negative base effects from lower energy prices fall out of the equation. No change is expected in either of the indices. CPI is expected come in at 0.0% and Core CPI at 0.6%.
    German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Eurozone GDP data showed a broadening of growth at the start of the year, but recent confidence indicators have been mixed and this week’s round of May ZEW, PMI and Ifo readings are likely to level off as concerns about the strength of the U.S. recovery, along with the slowing in Chinese growth, are weighing especially on investor sentiment. The headline ZEW reading is expected to contract to median 48.8 from 53.3.
    US Building Permits are expected at 1,055k in April from 1,042k in March. March of last year was the first time since June 2008 that starts broke above the 1,000k unit pace level before they set a new high in November.
    US Housing Starts are expected to climb 8.0% to a 1,000k unit pace in April following the 2.0% rebound to 926k in March. This compares to a recent high of 1,098k in July and a low of 521k in April ’09.
    BOC Governor Poloz Speaks on the topic “The Way Home: Reading the Economic Signs,” with a press conference to follow. The four-month high for the Canadian dollar will not be lost on the Bank, but accompanied by strength in crude oil. And data has not yet contradicted the Bank’s constructive outlook beyond Q1. It has been suggested that the Bank is seriously looking at raising its inflation target.
    Japan GDP: GDP growth was revised lower to a 1.5% pace (q/q) in the second preliminary Q4 report. No change is expected now and the GDP growth should come in at 1.5%.

    [​IMG]
    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex
    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  4. chico

    chico Member

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    Date : 20th May 2015.
    TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.

    [​IMG]
    EURUSD, Daily
    EURUSD has remained under pressure since trading sideways at support for yesterday afternoon. ECB pledges of accelerated or expanded QE this week have contributed to the correction we’ve seen this week from Friday’s three-month high at 1.1466. There also remains a lack of substantive progress between the Greek government and creditors in bailout negotiations, despite all too familiar optimistic sound-bites from various officials. The ECB considers widening of eligible Greek assets, but also raising the haircut on Greek collateral according to Greek newspaper Kathimerinini. This would maintain the lifeline for Greek banks, as the net effect should be broadly neutral. Time for a deal is running out, but if Tsipras hopes he can circumvent the Eurogroup and strike a deal at the margins of the upcoming summit in Riga, he is likely be mistaken. Creditors continue to insist on the agreed conditions, even though it is clear that they want to keep Greece in the Eurozone, as the impact of the first member exiting the Eurozone is uncertain.
    After trading a bit too long sideways at support yesterday the lack of upside momentum turned into a downside move this morning. EURUSD has fallen below the supporting rising trendline and to a 38.2% Fibonacci level that also coincides with a daily pivot low from May 5th. Today’s low at the time of writing has been 1.1060, only 8 pips above the March 26th high and now the latest complete 4h candle is a hammer. Therefore it seems that market is placing some significance to the March 26th high as support. At the same time Stochastics are edging close to oversold levels. This suggests that the down move is getting overdone. However, at the same time the move below 1.1131 pivotal support created a resistance level that is relatively close to the current price. This combination of support and resistance levels could lead to price stalling at current levels before the direction is resolved. Nearest support and resistance levels are at 1.1052 and 1.1131. Additionally there is intraday resistance at 1.1158. If these are cleared the next significant daily resistance level is at 1.1324.
    [​IMG]
    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)
    This morning we’ve seen some USD and GBP strength coupled with EUR and AUD weakness but the moves have been relatively small. DXY has run into a resistance at levels that turned it lower in the beginning of May AUDUSD has been the weakest dollar pair while GBP has been able to resist the USD strength and is practically unchanged.
    Main Macro Events Today
    Japan Preliminary GDP
    accelerated to a 2.4% growth pace in Q1 (q/q, saar), much better than expected following a downwardly revised 1.1% pace in Q4 (was +1.5%). Consumption grew at a 1.5% pace in Q1 (q/q, saar) contrary to an expected slowing following the 1.5% rate in Q4.
    Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment survey improved to 6.4 per cent in May following an interest rate cut and budget. Improvement from previous number (-3.2%) tells of a significant brightening in the outlook consumers have on their near term financial future. A surprise tax break for small businesses contributed to the positive sentiment.
    Norway Gross Domestic Product growth was weak. According to seasonally-adjusted figures, gross domestic product for Mainland Norway rose by 0.5 per cent in the 1st quarter of 2015, while the growth in the second half of 2014 has been revised downwards to a growth of 0.4 per cent. For the first time since the 2nd quarter of 2010, there was no growth in employment.
    Bank of England Minutes to the may MPC meeting showed a unanimous vote to keep policy unchanged. The minutes showed that while there was some uncertainty about the different estimates of spare capacity within the economy, the best collective view was that it amounts to around 0.5% of GDP and that it is “likely to be fully absorbed within a year”. So while the quarterly inflation report last week and the unanimous vote on unchanged rate indicate that rates won’t go up soon the diminishing slack in the economy signals that inflation will likely go up in the medium term and in line with that “all members agreed that it was more likely than not that bank rate would rise over the three-year forecast period”.
    BoE MPC Vote Hike: BoE minutes to the April MPC meeting showed unanimous votes to maintain the repo rate at 0.5% and the QE total was also unanimously maintained at GBP 375 billion. No change this time either as the MPC voted 9-0 to keep interest rates at 0.5 percent for now.
    FOMC Minutes.
    [​IMG]

    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex
    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  5. chico

    chico Member

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    Date : 20th May 2015. (Second Analysis)
    TWITTER STOCK TRADING AT SUPPORT.

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    TWTR, Weekly
    On April 28th Twitter quarterly results were leaked before they were officially due out. As the figures were worse than expected, the stock collapsed during the last hour of regular trading session in NYSE. Company had earlier provided guidance that the first quarter revenue would be $456.8 million which was also the figure analysts had put forward. However, twitter reported Q1 revenue of $436 million and thus missed the expectations and its own guidance. This and the lacklustre growth in the user base were the reasons for an 18% drop in share price on April 28th. At the time of writing TWTR is trading near $37, almost 30% lower than this year’s highest print.
    The stock is therefore trading at a steep discount compared to the highest prices paid this year and even to the 200 day SMA at $44.74. This discount is excessive in the light of the projected revenue decline for this year. Twitter is expected to generate revenue of $2.17 to 2.27 billion instead of the market expectation of $2.37 billion. We are therefore talking about at most a 8.43% revenue decline while the stock is trading over 16% below the long term (200 days) average price and 30% below the highest prices paid for the year. Also, the company is expected to have a higher revenue growth in 2015 than Facebook and LinkedIn as revenues are expected to grow by 60% this year. Therefore it is likely that the stock is on institutional value buy list at the current levels and this should provide an opportunity for us as well.
    Technically TWTR is now trading relatively close to December 2014 lows with weekly Stochastics firmly in the oversold territory. The December low of 34.62 is in the middle of the lower Bollinger bands (1.5 stdv at 36.29 and 2 stdv at 33.50). This suggests that the stock is trading right above support and the downside is therefore limited while the line of least resistance is to the upside. Nearest support and resistance levels are at 36.07 (January low) and 45.13 (March 9th low).
    [​IMG]
    TWTR, Daily
    Stochastics Oscillator has been moving slightly higher as price moves sideways between 36.90 support and 38.20 resistance. The next support at 36.52 was defined as price created a hammer candle on May 6th. The next significant resistance level after 38.20 is the 50% Fibonacci level that coincides with the March 9th low at 45.13 (see the weekly chart).

    [​IMG]
    TWTR, 240 min
    Bollinger bands have been narrowing which is typical before a breakout happens. At the time of writing Oscillators (Stochastics, RSI and MFI) are pointing higher but as the upper Bollinger bands acted as a resistance for a rally attempt yesterday and today the stock might move slightly lower before it’s ready to break above the resistance and advance.
    Conclusion
    Technically TWTR stock is trading at deep discount to long term averages and close to levels that have been able to turn price higher in the past. Twitter is also expected to see healthy revenue growth that even exceeds expected growth for Facebook and LinkedIn. This combined with the technical picture makes TWTR an interesting stock for professional value investors. At the moment TWTR does not represent a trading opportunity but rather is a stock that has good medium to long term potential. When price has dropped massively market participants usually wait until the dust settles before they start buying. Also, when institutions buy a stock they try to accumulate positions without driving the price higher. That’s likely the reason for the stock has been moving sideways over the last week and it could take a little while before this process is over and the stock is ready to move higher. However, when it does there will be opportunities for small investors and traders alike. I look for series of higher lows to indicate that the institutional accumulation process is nearing completion. Alternatively a fast move close to the 34.62 support would be a reason to look for lower time frame buy signals (as per my Live Analysis Webinars). My Target 1 is at $43.90 (50 week SMA) and Target 2 at $49.80. Should the stock start creating a series of lower highs and keep breaking supports the technical picture would deteriorate and this analysis would need to be revaluated.

    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex
    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  6. chico

    chico Member

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    Date : 21st May 2015.
    TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.

    [​IMG]
    EURUSD, Daily
    The FOMC minutes took wind out of the dollar’s sails yesterday, though in confirming that most members were not thinking of hiking in June the minutes were near expectations. Minutes to April 28, 29 policy meeting indicated a June rate hike was unlikely and probably won’t have sufficient data to confirm that conditions for raising rates are in place. Participants had a wide range of views on timing of rate lift-off due to uncertainties over strength of the US economy after Q1 weakness. Data dependency was again stressed with rate decisions to be made on meeting-to-meeting basis.
    I wrote yesterday that the combination of support and resistance levels (nearby) could lead to price stalling at current levels before direction resolved. This is exactly what happened yesterday and over the Asian session. EURUSD has been moving sideways between low of 1.1060 and high of 1.1160. As nothing much has happened overnight yesterday’s analysis and support and resistance levels are still valid (nearest support and resistance levels 1.1052 and 1.1131). Price moving sideways confirmed the indication that the down move was overdone but there are still headwinds to EURUSD moving higher: the move below 1.1131 pivotal support created a resistance level that is relatively close to the current price. This same resistance coincides with a support level in the US Dollar Index. As the latest complete 4h candle closed above 1.1146 the probabilities of EURUSD moving higher have now increased but the region of intraday resistance at 1.1158 has still proven to be a challenge. The next significant daily resistance level is at 1.1324.
    [​IMG]
    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)
    GBP has been the strongest currency today and the GBPUSD the performing pair. The shooting star candle in DXY from yesterday and the GBPUSD at support higher from a support yesterday support the bullish sentiment for GBP against the USD. US Dollar has been weak across the board and the DXY moving below the low of yesterday’s shooting star candle low promises more strength to EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD (and more weakness to USDCAD, USDCHF and USDJPY). Both AUDUSD and NZDUSD are trading above a pivotal support and latter at weekly Bollinger Bands. USDCAD is trading at upper daily Bollinger Bands while USDJPY is reacting lower from March resistance. USDJPY has some previous resistances that it has broken and could therefore find support at levels nearby.
    Main Macro Events Today
    Australian Consumer Inflation Expectation
    accelerated to a 2.4% growth pace in Q1 (q/q, saar), much better than expected following a downwardly revised 1.1% pace in Q4 (was +1.5%). Consumption grew at a 1.5% pace in Q1 (q/q, saar) contrary to an expected slowing following the 1.5% rate in Q4.
    Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment rose slightly to 3.6% from the earlier 3.4%. This increase is in line with the confidence boost measured yesterday by the Westpac Consumer Sentiment index as increased economic activity usually also leads to higher prices.
    Chinese Manufacturing PMI survey showed continuing weakness in China. This brings into focus the widespread expectations that the Chinese authorities would act on any signs of a serious downturn limited the market reaction. The number was a thirteen month low.
    German Manufacturing PMI fell back more than anticipated, with the manufacturing PMI dropping to 51.4 from 52.1 and the services reading to 52.9 from 54.0. Reading remains firmly above the 50 mark, but the weaker than expected numbers tie in with a marked drop in the ZEW and signal a slowdown in growth momentum.
    Eurozone Manufacturing PMI figures were mixed, with the manufacturing reading unexpectedly rising to 52.3 from 52.0, interestingly on the back of a rise in the French reading, while the German number fell back. The Eurozone services PMI meanwhile disappointed and dropped to 53.3 from 54.1, leaving the composite at 53.4, down from 53.9 in the previous month.
    UK Retail Sales surprised positively and came in at 4.7% instead of expected 3.8%. Retail sales were expected to ease again after this year’s high in February was followed a lower reading in March.
    Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey should improve to 8.0 in May after 7.5 in April.
    US Unemployment Claims: it is expected that initial jobless claims rose to 271k last week from 264k the preceding week when the claims figure hit the lowest level in nearly 15 years.
    [​IMG]

    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex
    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  7. chico

    chico Member

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    Date : 21st May 2015.(Second Analysis)
    SILVER CLOSE COMPLETION OF A BOTTOMING PROCESS.

    [​IMG]
    Silver, Weekly
    Silver has now broken out of the bear channel. The breakout was preceded by a consolidation that started in December 2014 and lead to market creating higher lows at the weekly Bollinger bands. Currently Silver is trading relatively close to the upper Bollinger bands and has reacted lower from them and 50 week SMA. The 38.2% Fibonacci level that coincides roughly with weekly closing high from March has supported price this week. Support levels: 16.97, 16.36 and 15.55. Resistance levels: 17.77 and 18.50.
    [​IMG]
    Silver, Daily
    The move lower from the 17.77 resistance was a strong one. This one day move eroded more than three day’s gains. This suggests that there could be more downside volatility in store. The area from 16.37 to 16.60 looks interesting as a support level and a 50% Fibonacci level coincide with a sideways consolidation and an apex of a triangle formation. This area also coincides with the descending trendline that is now likely to provide support after resisting price moves higher earlier. Support levels: 16.88, 16.60 to 16.37 and 15.85. Resistance levels: 17.48 and 17.77.
    [​IMG]
    Silver, 240 min
    Lately the price of Silver has been finding support at 50 period SMA and the region of 17.00 dollars but the higher time frame picture hints the downside is not yet over and the best buy levels should therefore be at lower levels. The 16.60 level used to resist moves higher and Silver should therefore attract buyers if price moves to the level. At the time of writing Stochastics indicator is rolling over and suggests the downside momentum is resuming.
    Conclusion The long term picture is positive with Silver now trading above the descending trend channel. This market has consolidated, created higher weekly lows and now broken above the down trendline. Such action indicates that the bottoming formation is near its completion. Short term price is still relatively close to the upper end of the range and weekly Bollinger bands. This suggests that the best low risk buy opportunities are lower. I look for buy signals in the region of 16.37 to 16.60 where several technical factors come together. My targets for short term trades from the above mention region are 17.00 (T1), 17.48 (T2) and 18.00 (T3).
    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex
    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  8. chico

    chico Member

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    Date : 22nd May 2015.

    TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.


    [​IMG]

    EURUSD, Daily
    Yesterday’s weaker than expected existing home sales in US and a dip in the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index supported forecasts for only tepid pick up in Q2 growth after a very weak Q1. The May Philadelphia Fed Survey disappointed. The figure came in at 6.7 instead of 8.0 expected by the analyst consensus. This increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current dovish stance.
    EURUSD has been trading in the low-to-mid 1.11s, above Wednesday’s 1.1060 low. There was a lack of substantive progress at the latest summit in Riga between the Greek government and creditors in bailout negotiations. The on-going Grexit uncertainty might have been the reason the euro’s upside has been curtailed, while the May German IFO today should affirm the slowing in growth momentum that was seen in the ZEW and PMI surveys. ECB’s Draghi and BoE’s Carney are set to speak at an ECB conference on central banking in Portugal and today’s European data calendar is unlikely to give markets any reason to cheer. Another speaker worthy of mention is the Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaking later on today.
    The resistance area created by the May 11th pivotal low has been holding EURUSD back but yesterday’s daily low was higher than the previous day’s low. This with the fact that price has moved higher from today’s open suggests modest bullishness on EURUSD. Daily bar lows also seem to honour a trendline drawn from April low. Stochastics are oversold and the lower Bollinger bands are catching up with the price. US Dollar index is looking weak as it’s trading below the shooting star candle lows from day before yesterday. Nearest support and resistance levels: 1.1052 and 1.1324.

    [​IMG]

    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

    Modest EUR strength and USD and GBP weakness is dominating the Currency Movers charts today. AUD, NZD and JPY performance has been mixed. EURJPY, EURAUD, EURCAD and EURNZD are reacting higher from intraday supports and should EUR make a move today, these pairs are likely to follow.

    Main Macro Events Today

    German Gross Domestic Product (Q1) growth slowed to 0.3% q/q as expected, a significant decrease from the fourth quarter last year which was 0.7%. Still, taken the two quarters together, the underlying trend is robust. The very strong labour market, the rising wage growth and the boost to real disposable income from lower oil prices reinforced Q1.

    US Consumer Price Index (YoY) is expected to remain unchanged, while the core index, which excludes food and energy products, is expected to rise to 1.7%, 0.1% lower compared to previous year’s result.

    Chinese Manufacturing PMI (YoY) is expected to expand to 1.0% in April, 0.2% lower compared to the previous month. It is seen rising 0.1% on a monthly comparable basis in April after the expansion of 0.7% m/m in March and 0.9% m/m in February.

    [​IMG]

    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  9. chico

    chico Member

    Joined:
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    Date : 25th May 2015.

    USDJPY TRADING NEAR MARCH HIGH.


    [​IMG]

    USDJPY Weekly

    USDJPY has been moving side ways since the beginning of December 2014. The deepest correction has the retracement to 38.2% Fibonacci level in mid-December and was followed by another in January that attracted buyers just above the previous low. Since then price has challenged the previous high once and after failing to penetrate the resistance it created a higher low. Now the pair has yet again moved to the upper weekly Bollinger Bands. At the same time we have the US Dollar Index at a level that resisted moves higher in March this year.

    USD has been relatively strong against the JPY throughout period it has been correcting against the other currencies and as the weekly lows have been higher with the latest CPI number from States surprising to the upside it could well be that the upper end of this range will eventually give in. At the end of the day it is more likely that the US Fed will hike the rates before the Japanese central bank which could even come up with yet another round of stimulus.

    [​IMG]

    USDJPY Daily

    Last week’s rally lifted USDJPY to the upper end of the range that has limited the pair’s movements since the end of the last year. Stochastics is overbought and price is reacting lower after moving above the upper daily Bollinger Band and also very close to the March high. If today’s daily candle closes to current levels or lower price has created a bearish shooting star candle. Stochastics is about to move below its three day moving average and could give a bearish signal should the weakness continue. Nearest support and resistance levels are 120.84 to 120.50 and 122.02.

    [​IMG]

    USDJPY 240 min

    The pair fell lower after hitting a historical resistance at 121.68 and has since found support at a minor support level that coincides with a high from Wednesday last week. This lack of upside momentum and a correction lower has eased the overbought condition in this timeframe and brought the oscillators lower. The nearest more significant support area (120.83 – 120.61) is currently near the lower Bollinger Bands and 38.2% Fibonacci level while the next major resistance is at 122.02.

    Conclusion

    Price is trading close to a longer term resistance and we could see market creating an exhaustion candle (shooting star). Today’s price action however might not be that important as many significant markets have been on holiday. Whenever a market is trading close to a resistance one should be looking for shorting opportunities. This market is trading near its resistance levels and therefore I would only initiate long positions after a correction to a significant support. Due to divergent inflation expectations and relatively strong US economy the dollar yen pair should eventually move higher but as usual a low risk entry would be preferable.Taking advantage of corrections to significant support levels such as the range created by Friday’s low at 120.61 and 1.5 stdv Bollinger Bands at 120.83 would be a preferable strategy to buying close to a resistance. Look for confirming price action at the key levels. If aforementioned support level fails to attract buyers assumptions in this analysis need to be re-evaluated.

    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  10. chico

    chico Member

    Joined:
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    Date : 26th May 2015.

    TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.


    [​IMG]

    EURUSD, Daily
    Yesterday the Fed Vice Chairman Fisher commented to the Reuters that he sees rates gradually rising to reach 3.25-4.00% by 2018. He said that the start of the tightening cycle would be determined by data, not a date. And that it is misleading to give so much importance to the Fed’s first rate hike. As the VC Fisher pointed out the rate hikes depend on the data, which gives the Fed a lot of leeway in determining the future interest rates policy.

    Last Friday’s CPI surprise from US lifted the dollar index higher and sent the EURUSD lower. My view has been that with Fed being dovish EURUSD having a major correction without an external event would be unlikely. Now such an event has occurred and the market psychology has once again changed to favour the dollar. But this could change. As we have seen the mood swings in this market are constant and can change very quickly. The real test of this newly found readiness to bid for the USD comes when EURUSD hits the vicinity of March and April lows.

    After the better than expected CPI figure on Friday pushed EURUSD through the support levels the pair has been drifting lower and crossed below the 50 day MA and lower Bollinger Bands. EURUSD has declined for six days without a decent rally higher and Stochastics is deeply oversold. That should mean that this downtrend is getting closer to a point where it is vulnerable to corrective rallies. Should there be a rally to the previous support area (1.1084 to 1.1131) it would make sense to look for shorting signals in that range. The 1.1131 resistance is a weekly low from two weeks ago and 1.1084 is a 38.2% Fibonacci level. The next support level is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0845 coinciding with daily highs from April. This could be a reasonable target for intraday short trades.

    [​IMG]

    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

    USD strength with EUR and JPY Weakness are the clear themes this morning. GBPUSD has created a lower high in daily and is now breaking below a support at 1.5447. Next major support area: 1.5046 to 1.5193. USDJPY pushed higher through the resistances and is now trading above the March high of 1.2202. GBPJPY is trading close to a resistance created by December 2014 high but has found support from a daily sideways range and reacted higher.

    Main Macro Events Today

    US Durable Goods Orders (Apr) is expected down to -0.5% with shipments growing by 0.5% and inventories by 0.2%, an indication that more and more inventory is held out of the market.

    US New Home Sales (MoM) (Apr) is seen rising by 2.9% to 495K compared to previous month’s results which was at 481K. Although the result is higher from March’s results, it is lower by 8.83% in relation to February’s result.

    US Consumer Confidence (May) is expected to fall to 93.0 from 95.2 in April, a decrease of 2.36%. Other confidence indicators have declined in May, and Consumer Confidence is more likely to follow them.

    [​IMG]

    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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