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Discussion in 'Analisa Teknikal' started by harryer, Nov 18, 2014.

  1. harryer

    harryer Member

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    COZfx: UK’s annual retail sales accelerated at the fastest pace in more than 14 years


    COZforex: For the past trading session, the GBP declined 0.19% against the USD and closed at 1.2417.

    Data indicated that, UK’s annualised retail sales increased at the fastest pace in more than fourteen years, after it jumped by 7.4% in October, thus increasing scope for the Bank of England to gradually move away from its easing-cycle. Meanwhile, markets expected retail sales to rise by 5.3%, following a revised gain of 4.2% in the previous month. Further, on a monthly basis, retail sales climbed by 1.9% in October, notching its three-month high level and surpassing market expectations for an advance of 0.5%. Retail sales had climbed by a revised 0.1% in the prior month.

    In technical analysis, COZ senior foreign exchange risk investment trader Desmond Doyle said: GBP/USD is expected to find support at 1.2352 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2305; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2476, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2553.

    With no economic releases in UK today, investor sentiment would be governed by global macroeconomic factors.

    (COZ forex UK)
  2. harryer

    harryer Member

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    COZfx: USD/CAD almost unchanged in early trade


    COZforex: The US dollar was almost unchanged against its Canadian counterpart on Thursday, as sentiment on the greenback remained strong, although a slight rebound in oil prices lent some support to the commodity-related Canadian currency.

    Trading volumes were set to remain thin with US markets closed for the Thanksgiving Day holiday.

    USD/CAD hit 1.3535 during early US trade, the pair’s highest since November 18; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.3498. In technical analysis, USD/CAD was likely to find support at 1.3420, Wednesday’s low and resistance at 1.3566, the high of November 18.

    The greenback remained supported amid expectations that President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to ramp up fiscal spending and cut taxes will spur economic growth and inflation.

    Faster growth would spark inflation, which in turn would prompt the Fed to tighten monetary policy a faster rate than had previously been expected.

    The U.S. dollar has also been boosted by bets that the US central bank will almost certainly raise interest rates next month.

    Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday reiterated that a rate hike “could well become appropriate relatively soon.”

    Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar found mild support as oil prices moved slightly higher on Thursday.


    (COZ forex UK)
  3. harryer

    harryer Member

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    COZfx: BOJ needs to maintain monetary easing but should monitor risks

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD rose 0.15% against the JPY and closed at 111.81.

    Yesterday, the OECD, in its economic outlook report, forecasted that Japanese economy will grow 1.0% next year before slowing to a 0.8% growth in 2018. Moreover, it also suggested that the Bank of Japan should continue monetary easing, until inflation is stable above the 2.0% target, while taking account of costs and risks in terms of possible financial risks arising out from its policies.

    Overnight data indicated that, Japan’s unemployment rate remained steady at 3.0% in October, in line with market expectations.

    In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: USD/JPY is expected to find support at 111.5 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 110.94; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 112.71, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 113.36.

    Investors would keep a close watch on Japan’s flash industrial production for October, due to release overnight.


    (COZ forex UK)
  4. harryer

    harryer Member

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    COZfx: Swiss manufacturing activity hits highest level since February 2014

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD declined 0.59% against the CHF and closed at 1.0102.

    The Swiss Franc gained ground, after Switzerland’s SVME-purchasing mangers’ index unexpectedly advanced to a level of 56.6 in November, rising for the fourth consecutive month and touching its highest level since February 2014. Market anticipated the index to decline to a level of 54.4, compared to a level of 54.7 in the previous month. On the contrary, the nation’s real retail sales dropped less-than-expected by 0.5% YoY in October, following a revised fall of 2.1% in the prior month, while markets expected it to ease by 2.2%.

    In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 1.0095, with the USD trading 0.07% lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

    In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: USD/CHF is expected to find support at 1.0065 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0036; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0149, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0204.

    Moving ahead, investors would concentrate on Switzerland’s third quarter GDP data, slated to release in some time.

    (COZ forex UK)
  5. harryer

    harryer Member

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    COZfx: Euro-zone’s economic growth confirmed at 0.3% in the third quarter

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR declined 0.3% against the USD and closed at 1.0723.

    In economic news, data revealed that the Euro-zone’s seasonally adjusted final gross domestic product rose 0.3% on a quarterly basis in the third quarter of 2016, confirming the preliminary print and following a similar rise in the previous quarter.

    Moreover, Germany’s seasonally adjusted factory orders rebounded 4.9% on a monthly basis in October, posting its fastest pace of growth in more than two years, thus hinting at a strong fourth quarter growth for the Euro-zone’s largest economy. Meanwhile, markets expected factory orders to gain 0.6%, following a revised drop of 0.3% in the prior month. Further, the nation’s Markit construction PMI advanced to a level of 53.9 in November, following a reading of 52.9 in the preceding month.

    The US Dollar gained ground against its major peers, after robust US factory orders data boosted optimism over the health of the world’s largest economy.

    Data indicated that the US factory orders jumped to its highest level in 16-months, after it increased faster-than-expected by 2.7% in October, suggesting that the nation’s manufacturing sector is gaining momentum after struggling to gain traction throughout the year. Factory orders had recorded a revised rise of 0.6% in the prior month, whereas investors had envisaged for an advance of 2.6%.

    In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: EUR/USD is expected to find support at 1.0681 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0644; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0770, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0822.

    Moving ahead, investors will look forward to Germany’s industrial production data, scheduled to release in a few hours. Additionally, in the US, mortgage applications and JOLTs jobs openings data are slated to release later in the day.


    (COZ forex UK)
  6. harryer

    harryer Member

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    COZfx: Australia’s NAB business confidence edged higher in November

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the AUD rose 0.58% against the USD and closed at 0.7496.

    In technical analysis, LME Copper prices declined 1.15% or $67.0/MT to $5757.0/MT; Aluminium prices rose 0.40% or $7.0/MT to $1749.5/MT.

    Overnight data indicated that Australia’s NAB business confidence index inched higher to a level of 5.0 in November, following a reading of 4.0 in the prior month. Meanwhile, the nation’s house price index rose 1.5% on a quarterly basis in 3Q 2016, lower than market expectations for an advance of 2.5%. In the prior quarter, the house price index had climbed 2.0%. On the other hand, the NAB business conditions index dropped to its lowest level since April 2015, after it fell to a level of 5.0 in November, compared to a revised level of 7.0 in the previous month.

    Elsewhere, in China, Australia’s largest trading partner, annual industrial production surprisingly advanced 6.2% in November, while markets expected it to record an unchanged reading of 6.1%. Moreover, the nation’s retail sales climbed more-than-expected by 10.8% YoY in November, rising at its fastest pace in a year, thus suggesting that the world’s second-largest economy is ending the year on a stronger footing. Markets expected retail sales to advance 10.2%, following a gain of 10.0% in the prior month.

    In technical analysis, coz forex senior derivatives trader Daniel • Moloney said: AUD/USD is expected to find support at 0.745 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7408; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7523, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7554.

    (COZ forex UK)
  7. harryer

    harryer Member

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    COZfx: BoE maintains 0.25% interest rate, warns of 2017 slowdown

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the GBP declined 0.92% against the USD and closed at 1.2424, after minutes of the Bank of England’s latest monetary policy meeting indicated that inflation may not rise as quickly as it expected in the near-term.

    The BoE, in its latest monetary policy meeting, held the benchmark interest rate steady at record low level of 0.25%, as was widely expected and maintained the current asset purchase programme at £435.0 billion, but warned that the balance of risks around inflation and growth would force the central bank to respond “in either direction” next year. Minutes of the meeting indicated that UK’s economic growth had been “remarkably steady” since the Brexit vote, but growth in 2017 is set to falter as firms put investment decisions on hold. The central bank also warned that inflation may not rise as quickly as it expected in the near-term.

    In other economic news, UK’s retail sales unexpectedly climbed 0.2% in November, compared to a revised rise of 1.8% in the previous month, whereas markets anticipated retail sales to remain flat.

    In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: GBP/USD is expected to find support at 1.2334 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2259; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2526, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2643.

    Moving ahead, market participants would await the release of BoE’s quarterly bulletin report, scheduled to release in a few hours.


    (COZ forex UK)
  8. harryer

    harryer Member

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    COZfx: USD/CAD edges higher in subdued trade

    COZforex: The US dollar edged higher against its Canadian counterpart on Wednesday, as expectations for more US rate hikes next year still boosted the greenback, although higher oil prices lent some support to the commodity-related Canadian currency.

    Trading volumes were expected to be thin this week with many traders away from the markets ahead of the Christmas holiday.

    USD/CAD hit 1.3389 during early US trade, the session high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.3384, adding 0.13%.

    In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: The pair was likely to find support at 1.3314, the low of December 16 and resistance at 1.3436, Tuesday’s high and a two-and-a-half week high.

    The greenback remained broadly supported after the Federal Reserve concluded its policy meeting last week by raising interest rates by 25 basis points and projected three more rate hikes for 2017.

    The Canadian dollar found some support amid rising oil prices on Wednesday, due to bets for bullish US stockpile data later in the day.

    (COZ forex UK)
  9. harryer

    harryer Member

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    COZfx: Euro-zone’s inflation will surge in the first quarter of 2017

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR rose 0.07% against the USD and closed at 1.0433, as the European Central Bank struck a hawkish tone in its latest economic bulletin report.

    The ECB indicated that, it still expects inflation in the common currency region to rise significantly in the first quarter of 2017 and will exceed 1.0%. Furthermore, it forecasted that global growth is set to accelerate in the next year. However, the central bank warned that policy uncertainty in the US due to Donald Trump’s victory in the Presidential election and unstable commodity prices may still place pressure on the global economic recovery.

    Separately, Germany’s annual import prices rebounded 0.3% in November, increasing for the first time in four years, compared to a drop of 0.6% in the previous month.

    In the US, final reading of annualised gross domestic product marked its strongest performance in two years, after it was revised up to 3.5% on a quarterly basis in the third quarter, buoyed by stronger consumer spending, while beating market expectations for an advance of 3.3%. The preliminary figures had indicated a rise of 3.2%, compared to an expansion of 1.4% in the prior quarter. Also, the nation’s personal spending advanced 0.2% in November, falling short of market expectations for a rise of 0.3% and after recording a revised rise of 0.4% in the prior month.

    In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: EUR/USD is expected to find support at 1.0414 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0385; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0486, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0529.

    Moving ahead, investors will look forward to Germany’s GfK consumer confidence index for January, slated to release in some time. Additionally, the US final Michigan consumer confidence index for December and new home sales for November, both scheduled to release later today, will keep investors on their toes.

    (COZ forex UK)
  10. harryer

    harryer Member

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    COZfx: Japanese Yen trading lower in the morning session

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD declined 0.42% against the JPY and closed at 116.54.

    In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 116.68, with the USD trading 0.12% higher against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

    In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: USD/JPY is expected to find support at 116.18 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 115.67; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 117.03, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 117.37.

    Moving ahead, market participants would concentrate on Japan’s final Nikkei manufacturing and services PMIs, both scheduled to release next week.

    The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

    (COZ forex UK)

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