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Daily news of Cozfx

Discussion in 'Analisa Teknikal' started by harryer, Nov 18, 2014.

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  1. harryer

    harryer Member

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    COZfx: NZD climbs to 2.5 week highs against USD

    COZforex: The New Zealand dollar climbed near 2.5 week highs against its US counterpart on Monday, as lower-than-expected inflation expectations in the US weighed on demand for the greenback.

    NZD/USD hit 0.7975 amid late Asian trade, the pair's highest since October 29; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.7941, advancing 0.44%. IN technical analysis, NZD/USD was likely to find support at 0.7822, Friday's low and resistance at 0.7992, the high of October 22.

    On Friday, the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rise to a seven year high of 89.4, better than forecasts of 87.5 and up from October’s reading of 86.9.

    However the report also showed that consumers expected annual inflation of 2.6% this year, down from expectations for inflation of 2.9% in October.

    Also Monday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said new motor vehicle sales dropped 1.6% in October, after an increase of 2.9% the previous month.

    Later in the day, the US was to release a report on manufacturing activity in the New York region, as well as data on industrial production.


    (COZ forex UK)
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  2. harryer

    harryer Member

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    COZfx: USD/CAD continues its losses in the Asian session

    COZforex: The US dollar slipped lower against the Canadian dollar on Thursday after reports showing U.S. inflation was flat last month and initial jobless claims fell, albeit slightly less than expected.

    USD/CAD hit lows of 1.1306 and was last down 0.19% to 1.1319. In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said, USD/CAD is predicted to find support at 1.1319 and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 1.1289. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.1370, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.1391.

    The Labor Department reported that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefit fell by 2,000 last week, to 291,000. Economists had expected a fall to 286,000, but it was the tenth straight week that initial claims remained below 300,000.

    A separate report showed that the US consumer price index was unchanged in October, compared to expectations for a 0.1% dip.

    On a year-over-year basis consumer prices rise 1.7% last month, unchanged from September.

    Core inflation, which strips out food and energy costs, rise by 0.2% during the month, pushing the annual rate up to 1.8%.

    The Canadian dollar was boosted after data on Thursday showed that wholesale sales increased by a seasonally adjusted 1.8% in September, blowing past forecasts for a gain of 0.7%.COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton


    (COZ forex UK)
  3. harryer

    harryer Member

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    COZfx: Pound slightly lower after UK Treasury hearing

    COZforex: The pound was slightly lower against the dollar on Tuesday after testimony by Bank of England officials to parliament’s Treasury Committee reiterated the dovish tone of its inflation report from earlier this month.

    GBP/USD was down 0.24% to 1.5668, not far from last week’s 14-month trough of 1.5588. COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said, GBP/USD is predicted to find support at 1.5630, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 1.5585. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.5718, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.5761.

    Sterling remained on the back foot after BoE Governor Mark Carney said the UK economy faces heightened risks from geopolitical tensions and slowing global growth, noting that economic conditions have deteriorated in the euro zone and Japan in recent months.

    Carney reiterated that it is “more likely than not” than UK inflation will decline below 1% in the next few months. However the central bank expects inflation will move back towards its 2% target in the medium term, as wage increases pick up.
    The BoE head also reiterated that when rates do start to increase they will do so in a gradual and limited way.

    Markets scaled back expectations for a rate hike by the BoE after the bank’s November 12 inflation report warned that downside risks to inflation remain and added that the rate of economic growth in 2015 is likely to be slower than this year.


    (COZ forex UK)
  4. harryer

    harryer Member

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    COZfx: USD/JPY slides on lukewarm US factory reports

    COZforex: The dollar softened against the yen on Monday after data revealed US factory floors were a little less busy in November than markets were expecting.

    In US trading, USD/JPY was down 0.33% at 118.21, up from a session low of 117.88 and off a high of 119.14. In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said, USD/JPY is predicted to find support at 118.31 and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 117.7. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 119.29, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 119.65.

    The dollar has firmed against the yen in recent sessions as markets prepare for US monetary policy to grow less accommodative while Japan moves in the opposition direction, though mixed U.S. manufacturing data allowed for Monday profit taking.

    UK-based Markit Economics reported earlier that US manufacturing activity in November expanded at its slowest pace since January, as new export orders fell.

    The Markit US manufacturing purchasing managers’ index ticked down to 54.8 in November from 55.9 in October. Economists had forecast a decline to 55.0.

    The yen rose on demand from bottom fishers after falling on news that Moody’s downgraded Japan's sovereign debt rating by one notch to A1, citing “heightened uncertainty” over Japan’s ability to cut its fiscal deficit following a decision by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to delay a planned sales tax hike.

    "Fiscal consolidation will become increasingly difficult to achieve as time passes given rising government spending, particularly for social programs associated with a rapidly ageing population," the rating agency said.


    (COZ forex UK)
  6. harryer

    harryer Member

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    COZfx: Euro trading lower before the ECB’s interest rate decision

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR dropped 0.60% against the USD and closed at 1.2310, following mostly soft economic data from the Euro-zone and its peripheries.

    Yesterday, retail sales in the Euro-zone rebounded 0.4% on a monthly basis in October, lower than market expectations for a 0.5% rise and compared to a drop of 1.2% registered in September. Meanwhile, the region’s services PMI unexpectedly declined to a level of 51.1 in November, following a reading of 51.3 registered in the previous month and compared to similar market expected figure.

    The greenback traded on a stronger footing after the US non-manufacturing composite PMI unexpectedly recorded a rise to 59.3 in November, compared to a level of 57.1 in the prior month, while market expectations were for the index to climb to a level of 57.5.

    Separately, the Fed’s latest Beige Book report indicated that the nation’s economic activity continued to expand across most of the country in October and November 2014, with employment market, consumer spending and business investment all picking up in most of the districts while retailers remained optimistic about the upcoming holiday season.

    In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said, EUR/USD is predicted to find support at 1.2275 and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 1.2243. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.2365, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.2423.

    Trading trends in the Euro today are expected to be determined by the ECB’s interest rate decision, followed by a speech from the central bank Chief, Mario Draghi, scheduled later today. Meanwhile, the US initial jobless claims data would keep investors on their toes.


    (COZ forex UK)
  7. harryer

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    COZfx: Australia’s business confidence index eased to a level of 1.0

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the AUD traded a tad higher against the USD to close at 0.8301.

    In commodities, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said, LME Copper prices dropped 1.08% or $70.5/MT to $6465.5/MT. Meanwhile, Aluminium prices dropped 2.10% or $42.0/MT to $1960.0/MT.

    Early morning data indicated that, Australia’s business confidence index eased to a level of 1.0 in November, compared to a revised reading of 5.0 recorded in the preceding month, while business conditions index fell to 5.0 in November, following a level of 13.0 registered in October.

    Furthermore, the National Australia Bank forecasted that the RBA would further slash its key interest rate and the Aussie would further slide down, citing persistent fall in commodity prices along with the negative economic impact of slumping mining investment in the country.

    In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, AUD/USD is predicted to find support at 0.8199, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 0.8165. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 0.8293, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 0.8352.

    Looking ahead, investors await Australia’s Westpac consumer confidence index data, scheduled overnight.


    (COZ forex UK)
  8. harryer

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    COZfx: NZD/USD weekly outlook during Dec 15 to 19

    COZforex: The New Zealand dollar edged lower against its US counterpart on Friday, as upbeat US consumer sentiment data added to expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interests sooner and faster than previously expected.

    NZD/USD hit 0.7607 on Tuesday, the pair's lowest since June 2012, before subsequently consolidating at 0.7778 by close of trade on Friday, down 0.49% for the day but 0.8% higher for the week. In technical analysis, NZD/USD is likely to find support at 0.7660, the low from December 10, and resistance at 0.7870, the high from December 11.

    Consumer sentiment was boosted by the improving outlook for employment and wage growth and lower gasoline prices. The data underpinned expectations for a hike in US interest rates by the Federal Reserve next year.

    Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its benchmark interest rate at 3.50% on Thursday and added that "some further increase in the official cash rate is expected to be required at a later stage."

    Commenting on the decision, RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler said that "gradual increases in interest rates will still be needed as the economy expands at around 3% a year and the country's jobless rate falls."


    (COZ forex UK)
  9. harryer

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    COZfx: Pound trading lower before the BoE minutes

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the GBP rise 0.67% against the USD and closed at 1.5748. Gains were kept in check following downbeat CPI data in the UK.

    Britain’s annual inflation rate eased more than expected to 1.0% in November, hitting its lowest rate since September 2012 and below market expectations of a decline to 1.2%. This followed a 1.3% increase registered in the prior month. Meanwhile, the nation’s retail price index unexpectedly declined 0.2% on a monthly basis in November, lower than market expectations for a flat reading.

    Separately, the BoE Governor, Mark Carney stated that falling crude oil prices would prove beneficial to global as well as the UK’s economic growth, but added that the decline also suggested some risks to financial stability.

    Yesterday, the BoE’s stress test results revealed that Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group managed to scrape past the central bank’s stress test, while still remaining susceptible to a severe economic downturn. Additionally, it further cautioned in its semi-annual Financial Stability report, that persistent low growth and inflation in the Euro-zone economy could pose a threat to the UK economy and its financial system.

    In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, GBP/USD is predicted to find support at 1.5630, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 1.5534. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.5806, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.5884.

    Trading trends in the Pound today are expected to be determined by the BoE minutes from its latest monetary policy meeting coupled with the UK’s ILO unemployment rate data, scheduled in a few hours.


    (COZ forex UK)
  10. harryer

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    COZfx: USD/JPY rises to 1-week highs as greenback remain broadly supported

    COZforex: The US dollar rise to 1 week highs against the yen in light trade on Monday, as sentiment on the greenback remained broadly supported by expectations for a US rate hike next year and as concerns over the recent drop in oil prices began to ease.

    USD/JPY hit 119.89 amid European early afternoon trade, the pair's highest since December 10; the pair subsequently consolidated at 119.81, rising 0.30%. In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said, USD/JPY is predicted to find support at 118.98 and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 118.51. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 119.78, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 120.11.

    The dollar remained broadly supported after the Federal Reserve signalled last week that it was on track to raise interest rates next year but said it was taking a patient stance.

    The central bank also acknowledged the improvement in the US labor market and noted that the economy is making progress toward its goals in inflation and employment.

    Earlier Monday, the Bank of Japan said, in its Monthly Report on Recent Economic and Financial Developments that the country's economy has continued to recover moderately, as the effects of the decline in demand following the sales tax hike have been subsiding.

    At the conclusion of its monthly policy meeting last Friday, the BoJ maintained the annual pace of increase in the monetary base at about ¥80 trillion.

    The safe haven yen had rallied earlier last week in the wake of a rout in oil prices, which had added to fears over the global economic outlook and the impact of oil’s drop on weakening emerging market economies and their currencies.


    (COZ forex UK)

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