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Daily Forex Market Analyses - ACY Australia

Discussion in 'Diskusi Forex' started by ACY Australia, Jun 13, 2017.

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  1. ACY Australia

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    Oil Rally Above $46 as Supply Glut Eases – 13 June, ACY Team

    West Texas Intermediate had a second straight day with a climb of 0.56 percent to settle at $45.894 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, paring gains from as high as $46.595 during the session yesterday on June 12.

    Recent rebound occurred after Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said inventories are declining and reductions will accelerate in the next three to four months. The soaring U.S. stockpiles may be a major reason that gains in these two days did not erase the 3.8 percent loss last week.

    Crude keeps trading below $50 a barrel amid investor’s concern over increased U.S. crude supplies will limit its further price rise, which is an action to counter production curbs by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia. American explorers added oil rigs for the 21st straight week to the record high since April 2015, a statistic from Baker Hughes Inc. Output at major U.S. shale plays will reach a record 5.48 million barrels a day in July, according to the Energy Information Administration.

    After OPEC’s deal to limit output in attempt to push prices failed to impress investors as it didn’t include deeper cuts, some alternative or exit plans, all focus turned to what’s happening in the U.S. market. There’s still a bearish outlook for crude oil in the long term before a potential agreement could be reached between OPEC and U.S. or some further effective plans could be put forward by OPEC.

    Technically oil prices has some rebound rather than breaking the descending price channel against the U.S. dollar, hinting that a bottom may be in place near the lower channel line and prices likely continue to trade in this channel.

    Near-term outlook for crude turns to constructive as price & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) run the bullish trends carried over from early May. In the event that the oil rebounds further, traders should first watch for a resistance found at 60-day moving average. Alternatively if prices fail to rally and reverse lower to break the lower channel, a support could be found at November 29’s low of 44.407.

    [​IMG]

    Chart 1: WTICOUSD Daily



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  2. ACY Australia

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    Oil Slump to Six-month Lows on Glut Fears - 21 June, ACY Team


    Crude fell more than 2.2 percent on Tuesday, settling at $43.104 per barrel, the lowest level since November, amid increased supply from several key producers which undermined the efforts of high compliance by OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers with a deal to curb oil outputs.

    Oil prices’ breakout of the descending channel yesterday increases the possibility of further decline, to its lowest settlement since Nov. 15, two weeks before the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers made a cut deal by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) for six months from January.

    "Given the expectation that you'll see higher production levels in several areas of the world, it's going to offset all they're taking off the market," said Gene McGillian, manager of market research at Tradition Energy.

    The descending momentum, seems continue even though OPEC, Russia and some other producers extended limits on output until the end of March 2018. Oil supplies jumped in May as output recovered in OPEC such as Libya and Nigeria, in addition to increased U.S. oil output, both partially exempt from the production reduction agreement.

    Libya's oil production rose more than 50,000 bpd to 885,000 bpd after the state oil company settled a dispute with Germany's Wintershall. Meanwhile Nigerian oil supply is also rising. Exports of Nigeria's Bonny Light crude are set to reach 226,000 bpd in August, up from 164,000 bpd in July.

    Ahead of weekly U.S. inventory reports, U.S. crude oil stocks were forecast to have fallen 2.1 million barrels last week, while gasoline was seen building by 400,000 barrels after last week's data showed an unexpected build that weighed heavily on the market.

    Technically oil prices already broke lower to the downward channel with also hitting six-week lows against the U.S. dollar, giving a sign that it may keep the momentum in bearish market. Near-term outlook is not encouraging as price & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is running in pessimism unless some rebound in a few days back to the channel. In the event that the oil continues to decline, traders may look for adding more in a short position to follow the momentum. Alternatively if prices fail to drop further and reverse to rally, traders may look forward to chasing some rebound on a long position.

    [​IMG]

    Chart 1: WTICOUSD Daily



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  5. ACY Australia

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    Gold Prices Find Support After a Dramatic Loss – 22 June, ACY Team

    Gold halted its descending momentum on Wednesday after ten consecutive days of sharp slide, closing with slight gains of 0.21 percent at 1245.47 points. Recent decline was mainly caused by Fed’s officials’ saying that the rate hike plan is still on the way, a hawkish voice pushing U.S. stocks while curbing Gold prices.

    The gold gains significantly for a second straight day to 1252.12 points as of 11:20 a.m. in Sydney, showing a reversal near a daily support level found at the lower ascending channel line. Although it is rebounding mainly caused by a technical support, the mid-term outlook for Gold prices is not encouraging as the U.S. economic data is not delightful to long investors for gold.

    Consumer prices in the United States increased 1.9 percent year-on-year in May of 2017, easing from a 2.2 percent rise in April and below expectations of 2 percent. It is the lowest inflation rate since November last year. Interest rate was announced to be revised up to 1.25 percent, 0.25 percent higher than previous, attracting more funds into bank sectors and securities, instead of into the gold market. From macroeconomic perspective, lower-than-expected inflation level and the proceeding rate hike plan are hampering its rally in a recent few weeks.

    Technically the 4-hour chart shows a breakout of a key resistance level around $1249, which is very near the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the July-December 2016 major move, after the continued sell-off in Gold prices. A surge of the breakout move changes the short-term pessimism and may fuel massive confidence to investors who are looking for a long position. If it is not retreat to 50% retracement level, a higher resistance level could be identified at $1257.15.

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    Chat 1: XAUUSD H4

    Given the bullish nature of the long-term setup, the Gold prices are rebounding after finding a support of the ascending channel line, and traders would likely want to incorporate the example of short-term support for making a long position. With price action did not move outside the long-term ascending channel, it more likely continues to swing in it.


    [​IMG]

    Chart 2: XAUUSD Daily


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  6. ACY Australia

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    Loonie Keeps Ascending Momentum With Strong Retail – 23 June, ACY Team

    The loonie rose 0.71 percent to C$1.32332 against the U.S. dollar, approaching the session highs since March. Its strength caught many investors by surprise given the drop in Oil prices to the lowest levels since August this week, which is seen as one of the major drivers in the economy.

    The continuous appreciation of the Canadian dollar was brought about by a double-punch of hawkishness from Bank of Canada members Wilkins that was stamped by Governor Poloz who said that prior rate cuts had fuelled economic growth in terms of an Oil crash.

    Recent growing value of CAD was also triggered by better-than-expected retail sales released on Thursday, the strongest start since 1991 showing a confirmation of a stable and growing Canadian economy. This figure highlights how much consumers—buoyed by strong employment growth—have powered the nation’s economy out of an oil slump, generating growth that is among the highest in the developed world. Increased investors, however, show angsts over the growth may not be sustainable as most of the consumer spending is driven by the wealth effects from a surging real estate market, especially in Vancouver.

    As Poloz said, the economy is gathering moment, not only in some certain spots but across a much wider array. Investors need to keep a close eye on the upcoming CPI data on Friday, which is forecasted to be 1.5 percent, slightly lower than previous. If CPI is set to be higher, it could put pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise rates, an action that leads to stronger CAD.

    The hourly technical chart shows that there are two key supports in the level of 1.31905, the June 19th’s lows and 1.34641, the June 14th’s lows. In the event that the USD/CAD breaks lower, traders should first watch for the pair to breakout beneath those two lows. Alternatively if prices reverse higher pulled by supports, traders may look for a long position in the near term.


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    Chart 1: USDCAD H1

    The USD/CAD is consolidating in a developing ascending weekly price channel. With touching the lower channel line, it likely rebounds with a technical support and keeps moving in the channel. However, if it succeeds to break lower continuous CAD gains could occur which attracts more investors to buy loonies for more profits.


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    Chart 2: USDCAD W1

    Retail trader data reveals 68.4 percent of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.16 to 1. Traders have remained net-long since Jun 07 when USD/CAD was trading near 1.34474. The number of traders net-long is 7.6% higher than yesterday and 0.8% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 15.7% lower than yesterday and 22.3% higher from last week. When sentiment is read as a contrarian indicator, this positive value suggests a bearish bias for the currency pair.


    [​IMG]
    Chart 3: USDCAD Client Positioning





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  8. ACY Australia

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    AUD Respects Support, Rally Back to Ascending Channel - 26 June, ACY Team

    The Australian dollar halted the short-term descending momentum for four consecutive days, and rallied 0.35 percent to $0.75650 against the U.S. dollar. It’s currently rising with following an ascending channel, depicted as chart 1, started from early May where the reversal occurred.

    In a background of decreased real wages in the first quarter and the developed world’s highest debt-to-GDP ratio, consumers are reducing their cash for a rainy day, in which their savings levels have more than halved in five years. The rising cost of living intensifies the squeeze, with news that electricity prices are climbing as much as 20 percent in New South Wales next month.

    As consumption accounts for more than half of gross domestic product, the highly indebted can be more sensitive to declines in income, which hence has negative impacts on consumer spending.

    According to BIS (Bank of International Settlement), Australia’s household debt to GDP ratio has jumped almost 15 percent points in four years, reaching as high as 123.1 percent in 2016 just after that of Switzerland. As the central bankers’ bank, BIS said that the higher speed of debt than GDP growth over prolonged periods is a “robust early warning” signal of financial stress, while rising household debt boosts short-term consumption.


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    Chart 1: Developed countries’ household debt to GDP

    There is a problem in Australia that the record-low interest rates allow buyers to borrow large amounts of money, which would boost household debt further and continue to push real estate market, especially in Sydney and Melbourne which attract enormous investment from Chinese buyers.

    Regarding worries over high level of debt from policy makers, the bank regulator is prompted to enforce measures to rein in riskier mortgages and strengthen lending standards, when the RBA (the Reserve Bank of Australia) noted in April that a third of mortgage holders had either no buffer or not enough of one to cover a month’s repayment. The borrowers with high risks tend to hold newer loans or come from lower-income and lower-wealth households.

    Aussie dollar climbed 0.28 percent to US$0.75813 as of 12:50 p.m. in Sydney. Technically with the bullish Relative Strength Index of 58.3327, the AUD/USD is consolidating in a developing ascending price channel. With a sign of rising tendency, it likely continues to rally and move in this price channel. In the event that the AUD/USD edges higher, traders should first watch for the pair breakout above Jun 14th’s high of 0.76354. Alternatively if prices reverse lower, the AUD/USD must first break beneath the lower channel line, then test last Friday’s low of 0.75361.


    [​IMG]

    Chart 2: AUDUSD Daily



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  9. ACY Australia

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    Euro Slides After Draghi Comments, Investors Await Yellen Speech - 27 June, ACY Team

    The euro hit the weekly highs to $1.12187 against the U.S. dollar, but later retraced its gains, by 0.15 percent to $1.11809 on Monday after the European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi defended the ECB’s easy monetary policy, and as investors are waiting for Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s speech on Tuesday.

    Draghi, who gave a speech to university students in Lisbon, noted that super low rates create jobs, boost economic growth and benefit borrowers, ultimately easing inequality. He also rejected calls to exit ultra easy monetary policy quickly, by arguing that premature tightening would lead to a new recession and more inequality.

    German businesses, as a dominant factor of European market, were feeling more positive than ever this month, according to a closely-watched business survey, which unexpectedly improved in the latest sign of confidence in Europe’s economic recovery.

    The Institute for Economic Research (Ifo’s) overall business climate index had already hit a record high last month, and June’s survey saw the index rise from 114.6 to 115.1, in contrast to predictions that it would ease slightly. Ifo’s two sub-indices which measure expectations and current assessment beat forecasts, increasing to 106.8 and 124.1 respectively.

    Euro zone’s economy would be positive as Germany’s economy is already in rude health, with unemployment at a record low and economic expansion of 0.6 per cent in the first quarter, and also experts are expecting the growth to continue.

    Fed Chair Yellen is set to deliver a speech in Europe on Tuesday, with investors’ expectation that she will maintain a positive outlook on the U.S. economy in spite of a recent batch of weak economic data, which hence is supporting the Fed’s forecast of raising interest rates once more this year and three times next year.

    The rate hike expectation helps improve the performance of the dollar against a basket of major currencies. With a reason that it already fuels enormous energy into the dollar, the long-term outlook of this strong performance may not be sustainable.

    The EUR/USD climbed 0.1 percent to $1.11910 as of 3:30 p.m. in Sydney. Technically with a sign of relatively strong Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 54.6686, the euro is consolidating in a daily developing ascending channel. This cannel as depicted below, has been created by connecting a series of swing highs and lows beginning with last Tuesday’s price action.

    In the event that the EUR/USD breaks lower, traders should first watch for the pair to breakout beneath 5-day moving average of 1.11763. Alternatively if prices continue to edge higher, the euro must first break above Monday’s high of 1.12187, then test the ascending channel line near 1.12259.


    [​IMG]
    Chart 1: EURUSD Daily




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  10. ACY Australia

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    US30 Declined Amid Yellen’s Speech - 28 June, ACY Team


    The U.S. 30 (underlying Dow Jones Industrial Average) lost around 0.45 percent of its value to the two-week lows of 21309.1 even though U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said on Tuesday that she does not believe that another financial crisis will occur at least as long as she lives, mainly due to reforms of the banking system since the 2007-09 crash.

    For a summary, the NYSE was lower at the close on Tuesday, with Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.46 percent, while the S&P 500 down 0.81 percent, and the NASDAQ Composite index declining 1.61 percent.

    The biggest gainers of the session on the U.S. 30 were JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM), which rose 0.93 percent or 0.81 points to close at 88.05. Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE:WMT) gained 0.68 percent or 0.51 points to end at 76.01 and Home Depot Inc (NYSE:HD) was up 0.54 percent or 0.82 points to 152.24 in late trade.

    The loss of the index was largely propelled by losses in Technology and Communication Service sectors. The biggest losers included Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE:VZ), lost 1.99 percent or 0.91 points to end at 44.84, while Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) declined 1.87 percent or 1.32 points to 69.21 and Cisco Systems Inc (NASDAQ:CSCO) shed 1.49 percent or 0.48 points to close at 31.76.

    Fed’s chair Yellen gave no indication her plans for continued tight monetary policy had shifted while acknowledging that some asset prices had become pretty high. “We’ve made very clear that we think it will be appropriate to attainment of our goals to raise interest rates very gradually,” she said this time in London.

    However, the general loss of U.S. equity market was largely influenced by her speech, as the rate hike plan seems in a rush, an opinion from Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis Fed President. With inflation low and wages showing little sign of an upward surge, the U.S. Reserve action on raising interest rates may be inappropriate to current economy which has no sign of overheat.

    "Why are we trying to cool down the economy, when there may still be some slack in the job market, and there is still some room to run on the inflation front?" he said. "We're not seeing wages climb very fast, and we're not seeing inflation. That tells me the economy is not on the verge of overheating."

    Technically intraday trading is at 21322.6 as of 2:50 p.m. in Sydney, and retracing its gains to 20-day moving average, which generally is seen as a support level by investors. As it is gathering a descending momentum in the near term from the record high, a downside may not shift if breakout of MA20 occurs.


    [​IMG]
    Chart 1: US30USD Daily



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