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Daily Forex Market Analyses - ACY Australia

Discussion in 'Diskusi Forex' started by ACY Australia, Jun 13, 2017.

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  1. ACY Australia

    ACY Australia New Member

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    Oil Rally Above $46 as Supply Glut Eases – 13 June, ACY Team

    West Texas Intermediate had a second straight day with a climb of 0.56 percent to settle at $45.894 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, paring gains from as high as $46.595 during the session yesterday on June 12.

    Recent rebound occurred after Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said inventories are declining and reductions will accelerate in the next three to four months. The soaring U.S. stockpiles may be a major reason that gains in these two days did not erase the 3.8 percent loss last week.

    Crude keeps trading below $50 a barrel amid investor’s concern over increased U.S. crude supplies will limit its further price rise, which is an action to counter production curbs by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia. American explorers added oil rigs for the 21st straight week to the record high since April 2015, a statistic from Baker Hughes Inc. Output at major U.S. shale plays will reach a record 5.48 million barrels a day in July, according to the Energy Information Administration.

    After OPEC’s deal to limit output in attempt to push prices failed to impress investors as it didn’t include deeper cuts, some alternative or exit plans, all focus turned to what’s happening in the U.S. market. There’s still a bearish outlook for crude oil in the long term before a potential agreement could be reached between OPEC and U.S. or some further effective plans could be put forward by OPEC.

    Technically oil prices has some rebound rather than breaking the descending price channel against the U.S. dollar, hinting that a bottom may be in place near the lower channel line and prices likely continue to trade in this channel.

    Near-term outlook for crude turns to constructive as price & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) run the bullish trends carried over from early May. In the event that the oil rebounds further, traders should first watch for a resistance found at 60-day moving average. Alternatively if prices fail to rally and reverse lower to break the lower channel, a support could be found at November 29’s low of 44.407.

    [​IMG]

    Chart 1: WTICOUSD Daily



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    Oil Slump to Six-month Lows on Glut Fears - 21 June, ACY Team


    Crude fell more than 2.2 percent on Tuesday, settling at $43.104 per barrel, the lowest level since November, amid increased supply from several key producers which undermined the efforts of high compliance by OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers with a deal to curb oil outputs.

    Oil prices’ breakout of the descending channel yesterday increases the possibility of further decline, to its lowest settlement since Nov. 15, two weeks before the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers made a cut deal by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) for six months from January.

    "Given the expectation that you'll see higher production levels in several areas of the world, it's going to offset all they're taking off the market," said Gene McGillian, manager of market research at Tradition Energy.

    The descending momentum, seems continue even though OPEC, Russia and some other producers extended limits on output until the end of March 2018. Oil supplies jumped in May as output recovered in OPEC such as Libya and Nigeria, in addition to increased U.S. oil output, both partially exempt from the production reduction agreement.

    Libya's oil production rose more than 50,000 bpd to 885,000 bpd after the state oil company settled a dispute with Germany's Wintershall. Meanwhile Nigerian oil supply is also rising. Exports of Nigeria's Bonny Light crude are set to reach 226,000 bpd in August, up from 164,000 bpd in July.

    Ahead of weekly U.S. inventory reports, U.S. crude oil stocks were forecast to have fallen 2.1 million barrels last week, while gasoline was seen building by 400,000 barrels after last week's data showed an unexpected build that weighed heavily on the market.

    Technically oil prices already broke lower to the downward channel with also hitting six-week lows against the U.S. dollar, giving a sign that it may keep the momentum in bearish market. Near-term outlook is not encouraging as price & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is running in pessimism unless some rebound in a few days back to the channel. In the event that the oil continues to decline, traders may look for adding more in a short position to follow the momentum. Alternatively if prices fail to drop further and reverse to rally, traders may look forward to chasing some rebound on a long position.

    [​IMG]

    Chart 1: WTICOUSD Daily



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  5. ACY Australia

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    Gold Prices Find Support After a Dramatic Loss – 22 June, ACY Team

    Gold halted its descending momentum on Wednesday after ten consecutive days of sharp slide, closing with slight gains of 0.21 percent at 1245.47 points. Recent decline was mainly caused by Fed’s officials’ saying that the rate hike plan is still on the way, a hawkish voice pushing U.S. stocks while curbing Gold prices.

    The gold gains significantly for a second straight day to 1252.12 points as of 11:20 a.m. in Sydney, showing a reversal near a daily support level found at the lower ascending channel line. Although it is rebounding mainly caused by a technical support, the mid-term outlook for Gold prices is not encouraging as the U.S. economic data is not delightful to long investors for gold.

    Consumer prices in the United States increased 1.9 percent year-on-year in May of 2017, easing from a 2.2 percent rise in April and below expectations of 2 percent. It is the lowest inflation rate since November last year. Interest rate was announced to be revised up to 1.25 percent, 0.25 percent higher than previous, attracting more funds into bank sectors and securities, instead of into the gold market. From macroeconomic perspective, lower-than-expected inflation level and the proceeding rate hike plan are hampering its rally in a recent few weeks.

    Technically the 4-hour chart shows a breakout of a key resistance level around $1249, which is very near the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the July-December 2016 major move, after the continued sell-off in Gold prices. A surge of the breakout move changes the short-term pessimism and may fuel massive confidence to investors who are looking for a long position. If it is not retreat to 50% retracement level, a higher resistance level could be identified at $1257.15.

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    Chat 1: XAUUSD H4

    Given the bullish nature of the long-term setup, the Gold prices are rebounding after finding a support of the ascending channel line, and traders would likely want to incorporate the example of short-term support for making a long position. With price action did not move outside the long-term ascending channel, it more likely continues to swing in it.


    [​IMG]

    Chart 2: XAUUSD Daily


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  6. ACY Australia

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    Loonie Keeps Ascending Momentum With Strong Retail – 23 June, ACY Team

    The loonie rose 0.71 percent to C$1.32332 against the U.S. dollar, approaching the session highs since March. Its strength caught many investors by surprise given the drop in Oil prices to the lowest levels since August this week, which is seen as one of the major drivers in the economy.

    The continuous appreciation of the Canadian dollar was brought about by a double-punch of hawkishness from Bank of Canada members Wilkins that was stamped by Governor Poloz who said that prior rate cuts had fuelled economic growth in terms of an Oil crash.

    Recent growing value of CAD was also triggered by better-than-expected retail sales released on Thursday, the strongest start since 1991 showing a confirmation of a stable and growing Canadian economy. This figure highlights how much consumers—buoyed by strong employment growth—have powered the nation’s economy out of an oil slump, generating growth that is among the highest in the developed world. Increased investors, however, show angsts over the growth may not be sustainable as most of the consumer spending is driven by the wealth effects from a surging real estate market, especially in Vancouver.

    As Poloz said, the economy is gathering moment, not only in some certain spots but across a much wider array. Investors need to keep a close eye on the upcoming CPI data on Friday, which is forecasted to be 1.5 percent, slightly lower than previous. If CPI is set to be higher, it could put pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise rates, an action that leads to stronger CAD.

    The hourly technical chart shows that there are two key supports in the level of 1.31905, the June 19th’s lows and 1.34641, the June 14th’s lows. In the event that the USD/CAD breaks lower, traders should first watch for the pair to breakout beneath those two lows. Alternatively if prices reverse higher pulled by supports, traders may look for a long position in the near term.


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    Chart 1: USDCAD H1

    The USD/CAD is consolidating in a developing ascending weekly price channel. With touching the lower channel line, it likely rebounds with a technical support and keeps moving in the channel. However, if it succeeds to break lower continuous CAD gains could occur which attracts more investors to buy loonies for more profits.


    [​IMG]
    Chart 2: USDCAD W1

    Retail trader data reveals 68.4 percent of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.16 to 1. Traders have remained net-long since Jun 07 when USD/CAD was trading near 1.34474. The number of traders net-long is 7.6% higher than yesterday and 0.8% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 15.7% lower than yesterday and 22.3% higher from last week. When sentiment is read as a contrarian indicator, this positive value suggests a bearish bias for the currency pair.


    [​IMG]
    Chart 3: USDCAD Client Positioning





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